Embraer foresees more regional routes amid geopolitical shift
June 13, 2025
North America will have the lowest air passenger traffic growth rate of any region over the next 20 years but the highest share of sub-150-seat jet deliveries, according to Embraer's latest market outlook report. The Brazilian airframer forecasts worldwide demand for 10,500 jet and turboprop aircraft with up to 150 seats between 2025 and 2044 – a figure it says is "almost unchanged" from its previous estimate for the next two decades. This includes 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops. It puts the value of these new orders at $680 million. Replacement of older aircraft will account for 52% of all new deliveries, Embraer believes, while 48% will be used to grow markets. Global passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger-kilometres (RPKs), is expected to grow by 3.9% a year through to 2044, says Embraer, with the fastest growth (5.7%) expected in China and the slowest (2.4%) in North America. The second-fastest growth rate will be in Latin America, followed by Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and then Europe & CIS. Embraer says it has detailed China's figures separately for the first time because of that country's "growing prominence in commercial aviation". By the end of 2044, predicts Embraer, the Asia-Pacific region will account for 39% of global RPKs while Europe and North America combined will account for 37%. North America will take delivery of the largest proportion of jet aircraft in this category over the next 20 years, with 2,680 jets set to be delivered. This represents a 30.7% share. Europe & CIS follows, at 22.8%, with China taking the third largest share, at 17.2%. Asia-Pacific will account for the largest share of turboprop deliveries (36%), followed by Europe & CIS. "Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting," says Arjan Meijer, chief executive of Embraer's commercial aviation division. "In our first post-pandemic market outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalisation to a more polarised geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow." Meijer adds that mixed fleets combining small and large narrowbody aircraft are "essential for that long-term growth". Embraer notes in its report that strategic autonomy is the most significant structural change to the global economy, because it reflects "how the world is repositioning itself in the face of rapid and profound changes in the geopolitical order". Domestic industries will become "more prevalent", the airframer predicts, and demand for short-distance travel and commerce will increase. "Airlines with predominantly large aircraft in their fleets will be limited in their ability to improve network connectivity as distances shrink in the new environment," says Embraer. "Small narrowbody jets, however, have the ideal capacity and greater operational flexibility to provide more frequencies and serve more destinations, especially in shorter sectors."
Silver Airways halts operations
June 12, 2025
US regional carrier Silver Airways abruptly halted all operations on 11 June, just over six months after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The airline states in a social media post that "Silver entered into a transaction to sell its assets to another airline holding company, who unfortunately has determined to not continue Silver's flight operations in Florida, the Bahamas and the Caribbean". It adds that passengers should not proceed to the airport and instead pursue refunds through their credit card provider or travel agent. The airline's website appears active and does not contain the same message. However, a search of the airline's booking engine shows that there are no flights available for booking over the coming months. Fleets data shows that Silver operated five ATR 72-600s and three ATR 42-600s, all of which were leased. Azorra is listed as the manager of the three ATR 42s and three of the ATR 72s, while Jetstream Aviation Capital manages the other two ATR 72s. Silver's Seaborne Airlines subsidiary, which is also in Chapter 11, had one Viking Air DHC-6-300 in service that is on lease from Kenn Borek Air. In early May, Wexford Capital subsidiary Argentum Acquisition was named as the 'stalking horse' bidder for Silver ahead of an auction set for 28 May. Under that deal, Argentum proposed to buy the assets of the airline for $5.78 million if no higher bids were received at the auction. Cirium contacted Wexford Capital outside of usual business hours to confirm if it has taken control of Silver's assets but has not received a response at the time of publishing. The airline filed for Chapter 11 on 30 December 2024, and in a court filing in January, its then-president Steven Rossum largely blamed its financial troubles on the difficult introduction of the ATR turboprops into its fleet.
Air Transat parent agrees to restructure Covid-era debt
June 12, 2025
Air Transat parent company Transat has reached an in-principle agreement to restructure a C$772 million ($565 million) debt owed to the government-owned Canada Enterprise Emergency Funding Corporation (CEEFC) that helped to support it during the Covid-19 pandemic. The debt was accrued from the Employer Emergency Funding Facility (LEEFF) program CEEFC manages. Transat says that the restructuring includes repayment of C$41.4 million in cash to CEEFC; a reduction of credit facilities to a single facility of C$175 million; and issuing the corporation a C$159 million debenture maturing in 10 years. It will also issue CEEFC C$16.3 million of preferred shares that are convertible into voting shares representing 19.9% of its equity. The transaction "remains subject to the execution of definitive agreements and documentation giving effect to the transaction," Transat states in a 5 June press release. The C$175 million credit facility will have a 10-year term with interest accruing at a rate of 1.22% per annum for the first three years, and 3% thereafter, Transat adds. It will be secured by a second lien on all the assets of the company. The 10-year debenture will not accrue interest in the first five years, after which it will accrue at a rate of 7% per annum, increasing by 1% each year thereafter up to a maximum of 12% per annum, Transat says. Transat further notes that its existing C$50 million senior revolving credit facility and C$74 million revolving credit facility for letters of credit are not part of the restructuring and will remain in place and available to it. As part of the restructuring, Transat has agreed with CEEFC to repay 50% of the senior revolving credit facility by no later than 1 November 2026. "We are pleased to have been able to reach this agreement, which will substantially deleverage our balance sheet and pave the way for Transat to further implement its long term sustainable strategic plan and complete the implementation of its Elevation program," states Annick Guerard, Transat's president and chief executive. Elizabeth Wademan, president and chief executive of CEEFC parent company Canada Development Investment Corporation, states that it has " worked closely with Transat to ensure it meets its obligations under the LEEFF programme while supporting the company's continued commercial viability in a competitive market. "LEEFF has been a successful program by making emergency loans available to Canada's large employers to enable them to stay solvent and save jobs both during the pandemic and beyond."