Russia risk focus turns towards aircraft diversions
April 27, 2023
As most Western lessors turn to insurers to recover the value of aircraft that remain in Russia, at least one has raised concerns about what may be possible if aircraft overflying the country are forced to divert there in an emergency. Speaking during an engine leasing panel discussion at the recent Airline Economics Growth Frontiers event in Tokyo, Clover Aviation Capital executive director and chief technical officer Gareth Delany noted that there has been "an increase in overflight" of Russia from non-European and non-US carriers, which have verified that they are still covered by insurance and not breaching sanctions. However there was still uncertainty about how an emergency landing in Russia, and any subsequent repairs, may be handled in a sanctions-compliant manner. "When you get onto the topic of what happens in an emergency and you have to land in Russia, what are you going to do with those [aircraft]? Some of the airlines to whom this is quite new may not have such detailed plans in place because there is an IATA approved flight path over Russia." By extension, aircraft and engine lessors could face major risks to their assets if the operator be unable to contract with Russian maintenance providers to repair a stricken aircraft due to sanctions compliance. "I would love to know, when your engine is hitching a ride on someone's aircraft, you could be in a lot of risk there from an engine leasing perspective," Delany said. Similar issues have occurred in other sanctioned jurisdictions, such as when a Norwegian Boeing 737 Max 8 flying from Dubai to Oslo was forced to make an emergency landing at Shiraz in Iran due to an engine issue. The aircraft remained in Shiraz for around six weeks until US authorities granted an exemption for a replacement CFM International Leap-1B engine to be flown in, with the aircraft ferrying out to Oslo soon after it was repaired. More broadly, during the same discussion Ascend by Cirium's global head of consultancy, Rob Morris, commented that concerns from lessors about the impact of Russia's sanctions are largely "done" from an operational perspective, with most now working through insurance claims for their aircraft stuck there. He did note however that it has sharpened some lessors' focus on how they manage their jurisdictional risk. "It makes people think differently about risk, but frankly this is a global industry and if you want to be a global player you have to be in every market," he says.
American expects minimal impact from Boeing delays
April 27, 2023
American Airlines expects its summer operations to escape disruption from Boeing delivery delays. "It looks like we're going to be minimally impacted," chief executive Robert Isom said during a 27 April earnings call. Airframers need to be "better than what they have been", adds Isom, but he has "all the confidence" things will improve. American intends to take delivery of 23 new aircraft this year, with nine due to arrive in the second quarter and six the following quarter, says chief financial officer Devon May. It took delivery of three aircraft in the first quarter. Isom says the carrier is "growing less than anybody else this year", noting that "manufacturers haven't been able to deliver on time and we've had pilot constraints". About 150 of the airline's regional aircraft are "still on the ground" due to the shortfall in pilots. However, the airline is making progress on these issues and anticipates that "virtually all those regional aircraft will be back in the system" eventually, he adds. He acknowledges that last summer was "pretty rocky" and says there are likely to be operational issues this summer, but the airline has "new tools in place to allow us to build back from any disruption in a much better fashion". The Fort Worth-based Oneworld member has reported a profitable opening quarter for the first time in four years, on the back of strong demand, beating its breakeven guidance for the period. This was "driven by continued strength in demand", says Isom, citing a "noticeable" rise in demand for long-haul, international flights. This segment will see "the largest proportion of our growth in this coming year", he adds. "We're well on our way to a fully recovered business, but we aren't there yet," he warns, adding that the carrier aims to "remain nimble and continue to adapt to customer behaviour". He believes the airline industry is now "on the other side" of the Covid-19 crisis, and points to consumers' growing preference for "experiences" such as travel over "hard goods".
American ended the first quarter with $14.4 billion of total available liquidity. It reduced total debt by $850 million in the first three months of the year and says it is 60% of the way to its goal of reducing debt by $15 billion by the end of 2025.
Traffic rose 17% on a 9% increase in capacity during the first quarter of 2023. Load factor improved by 5.6 percentage points to 80%. Isom forecasts "record revenues" in the second quarter, and the carrier expects adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.20-1.40, rising to $2.50-3.50 for the full year. In May, American intends to make a profit-sharing payment to its employees for the first time in three years, noting that it has accrued $211 million for this purpose.
Air Moldova suspends flights amid battle with regulator
April 26, 2023
Air Moldova says it has been "forced" to suspend all operations between 21 and 25 April, due to a lack of financial resources. It follows a warning from Moldova's civil aviation authority in November that the carrier was at "potential risk of insolvency". The regulator said at the time that an unannounced inspection had uncovered "serious deficiencies" in Air Moldova's finances, and that the airline had been asked to submit a corrective action plan for approval. In a 21 April statement, Air Moldova said it was suspending the operation of all flights until 25 April, and that all affected passengers would receive a refund. In March, the carrier claimed it was "the target of a pre-meditated denigration campaign aimed at bankrupting the company". It said at the time that it had been forced to "temporarily" return two leased aircraft, after the lessor "demanded their immediate return". Data shows that Air Moldova has a fleet of five aircraft, four of which are listed as being in storage. One Boeing 737-700 is in service and is managed by Deucalion Aviation but sub-leased from Greece's Lumiwings. One Airbus A319 is leased from Carlyle Aviation Partners, one A321 is leased from Willis Lease Finance and one A320 is leased from TrueAero. It also owns an Embraer 190. Air Moldova was privatised in 2018. The airline said in March that its plan for 2023 was to renew its fleet and launch eight new destinations.