Qantas is likely to fly its Airbus A380s again, according to the Australian carrier’s chief executive Alan Joyce, particularly on routes where tight scheduling is a factor. Speaking during a Eurocontrol event today, Joyce explained that while all 12 of the airline’s A380s “are sitting in the Mojave desert” – a reference to their storage at Victorville airport in California – and will remain grounded for at least three years, “we do think, if you look at the Qantas network, there are going to be opportunities to deploy those aircraft”. The carrier grounded all of its A380s by June last year as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic became apparent, leading to suggestions that it might follow carriers such as Air France in permanently removing the type from its future fleet plans.
Joyce states, however, that Qantas will continue to have “scheduling windows” that are likely to make A380 operations viable when international services return. “If you’ve ever been in LA between 10pm and midnight, you see six or seven Qantas aircraft departing for Australia, because it’s the only time that works with curfews,” he says. “So, instead of flying multiple frequencies right on top of each other, an A380 that’s fully or nearly fully written down, if it generates cash, will absolutely work.” He also cites the potential for A380s to return at “airports that have slot restrictions like Heathrow”. On the cash-generation point, Joyce explains that the A380s have been “written down… a couple of times” – most recently last year as Covid-19 prompted to the Australian government to introduce strict controls on international travel – reducing their burden on Qantas’ balance sheet. He adds: “So we do believe that there’s a need for that fleet and we do believe that it’s going to generate cash, and it’s all going to be about cash when we start up international”. Joyce further recalls that six of the aircraft have been reconfigured in recent years, with one example even flying “directly to the Mojave Desert” following a refit in Dresden. “It’s there with new seats on it that nobody has ever sat on, which is unbelievably disappointing,” he laments. Further into the future, Qantas’ plan for direct ultra-long-haul flights to destinations in Europe, North America and elsewhere means that, eventually, “we’ll have enough of the [Airbus A350-1000] aircraft to fly direct and overfly a lot of the hubs as well”, which would “take the burden of having the big aircraft needed for those big destinations” and mean A380s could be phased out. Qantas expects to make a decision on the launch and initial aircraft orders for those ultra-long-haul destinations later this year under its Project Sunrise programme, with first flights likely pushed back a year to 2024 because of the pandemic.

Global air travel, as measured by revenue passenger-kilometres, may this year grow only 13% from the disastrous levels seen in 2020, IATA has warned. Instead of the 50% improvement projected in IATA's official forecast, RPKs barely rise until the middle of 2021 under a new scenario that takes into account the differing and more infectious strains of Covid-19. "Clearly the near-term outlook is somewhat darker than what we expected. It's going to be a very difficult start to the year," says IATA chief economist Brian Pearce. The association stresses that the new scenario does not represent a change to its forecasts but is "an introduction of what may happen", in Pearce's words. "We don't have enough information to know with certainty what the second half of the year may look like," he adds. A 13% rise in traffic against 2020 would return the industry to just 38% of 2019's levels. IATA chief executive Alexandre de Juniac says that should the recovery fail to materialise, airlines would require further government assistance of $70-80 billion in 2021 to "bridge the gap". Assistance should not place airlines into further debt, he argues, because "the industry is too heavily indebted already". The latest IATA scenario is based partially on forward-bookings data that showed improving sales through December falling back "very sharply" at the end of the month and into the new year. The association maintains its position that once travel restrictions are lifted there will be a sharp bounceback in the demand for flying, based on the surge in bookings when certain routes were opened up.

Emirates is reinstating outbound passenger services from the UK to Dubai from today, following the suspension of inbound connections because of travel restrictions. Services will consist of a daily flight from London Heathrow and four weekly services from Manchester. Cargo-only operations will continue from Birmingham and Glasgow. The Middle Eastern carrier says the move is designed "primarily to help return passengers, particularly UAE residents, to get home". As of 29 January the UK has prevented entry to passengers who arrived from or transited through the UAE, except those with British or Irish passports or UK residency, and banned direct flights from the country. Exempted travellers are required to self-isolate for 10 days. The number of departing flights from the UK to the UAE declined sharply after the ban, falling from 16 on 11 January to just four on 1 February. The UAE had been on the UK's list of safe travel corridors until 12 January, when it was removed because of worsening Covid-19 cases. Up until that point the connection between London and Dubai was the 22nd busiest international route globally, with 950 flights and nearly 400,000 seats between 1 and 11 January.