Global air travel, as measured by revenue passenger-kilometres, may this year grow only 13% from the disastrous levels seen in 2020, IATA has warned. Instead of the 50% improvement projected in IATA's official forecast, RPKs barely rise until the middle of 2021 under a new scenario that takes into account the differing and more infectious strains of Covid-19. "Clearly the near-term outlook is somewhat darker than what we expected. It's going to be a very difficult start to the year," says IATA chief economist Brian Pearce. The association stresses that the new scenario does not represent a change to its forecasts but is "an introduction of what may happen", in Pearce's words. "We don't have enough information to know with certainty what the second half of the year may look like," he adds. A 13% rise in traffic against 2020 would return the industry to just 38% of 2019's levels. IATA chief executive Alexandre de Juniac says that should the recovery fail to materialise, airlines would require further government assistance of $70-80 billion in 2021 to "bridge the gap". Assistance should not place airlines into further debt, he argues, because "the industry is too heavily indebted already". The latest IATA scenario is based partially on forward-bookings data that showed improving sales through December falling back "very sharply" at the end of the month and into the new year. The association maintains its position that once travel restrictions are lifted there will be a sharp bounceback in the demand for flying, based on the surge in bookings when certain routes were opened up.

Emirates is reinstating outbound passenger services from the UK to Dubai from today, following the suspension of inbound connections because of travel restrictions. Services will consist of a daily flight from London Heathrow and four weekly services from Manchester. Cargo-only operations will continue from Birmingham and Glasgow. The Middle Eastern carrier says the move is designed "primarily to help return passengers, particularly UAE residents, to get home". As of 29 January the UK has prevented entry to passengers who arrived from or transited through the UAE, except those with British or Irish passports or UK residency, and banned direct flights from the country. Exempted travellers are required to self-isolate for 10 days. The number of departing flights from the UK to the UAE declined sharply after the ban, falling from 16 on 11 January to just four on 1 February. The UAE had been on the UK's list of safe travel corridors until 12 January, when it was removed because of worsening Covid-19 cases. Up until that point the connection between London and Dubai was the 22nd busiest international route globally, with 950 flights and nearly 400,000 seats between 1 and 11 January.

Boeing has further delayed its 737 Max 10 programme by two years, with deliveries of the largest variant of its re-engined narrowbody now scheduled to begin in 2023. The company also now expects to deliver the first 737 Max 7 – the smallest of the Max family – in 2021; that milestone was previously anticipated in 2020. The Chicago-headquartered airframer disclosed the tweaked timelines in its latest annual report, made public on 1 February. Several days earlier, during Boeing’s 27 January earnings call, the company said it had pushed back the first 777-9 delivery from 2021 to 2023. “We now anticipate that the first 737 Max 10 and 777X delivery will occur in 2023,” Boeing’s securities filing says. “This schedule reflects a number of factors, including an updated assessment of global certification requirements informed by continued discussions with regulators and resulting in a management decision to make modifications to the aircraft’s design.” The company has disclosed it is modifying the 777-9 due to certification requirements but has not mentioned Max 10 design changes. However, a recent document from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) says the Max 10 will receive an angle-of-attack (AoA) sensor “integrity enhancement” – essentially a means of reducing the risk from a failure of one of the two AoA sensors. Boeing did not immediately respond to requests for more information. Boeing has been relatively quiet about the Max 7 and 10 development schedules since the grounding of the Max 8 and 9 in March 2019. US regulators cleared those jets to fly in November 2020, with EASA following suit last month. Previous annual reports placed 737 Max 10 deliveries as beginning in 2020. That deadline quietly slipped amid the Max and Covid-19 crisis of 2020. The company rolled out the first Max 10 in November 2019. The jet’s differences from its smaller siblings include longer landing gear, which ensures appropriate clearance between the rear fuselage and the ground during take-off rotation. The main gear has a “semi-levered” design, which saved Boeing from making extensive changes to the Max’s wheel wells. During rotation, the gear extends 241mm (9.5in). Once airborne, a steel compressing mechanism called a “shrink link” pulls the inner cylinder as the gear retracts. The Max 10 is to carry up to 230 passengers and have 3,300nm (6,110km) range, according to Boeing’s figures. By comparison, Airbus’s A321neo can carry up to 244 passengers and has range of 4,000nm (in the LR variant). Airbus is also developing the 4,700nm-range A321XLR.