Recent growth in the number of coronavirus cases is harming the recovery in air passenger demand and could lead IATA to downgrade its passenger estimates for the remainder of the year, the association has warned. IATA notes that passenger demand in May was down 91% from the same month last year. This represents a "mild uptick" from the 94% annual drop seen in April, driven by a recovery in domestic markets, especially China. But data from the second half of June shows that as the number of worldwide coronavirus cases has accelerated over the period, net bookings have again begun to decline. Speaking during IATA's weekly press call, chief economist Brian Pearce highlighted that although June looked better than May "on average", the reduction during the second half of the month "is causing us to be cautious about prospects in the next few months". He adds that there is a "downside risk" to the association's current projections. "We still expect an improvement, but not as much as our baseline," says Pearce. Illustrating the deteriorating market conditions, Pearce showed an updated estimate of revenue passenger-kilometres for 2020 with a downside risk scenario under which RPKs recover only to a fall of 53% in December 2020, versus the recently published baseline scenario of a 36% reduction. The risk is largely focused on emerging markets and US international flights, as these regions are seeing the bulk of the rise in fresh cases. Together they account for 37% of global RPKs. Looking at the wider market, Pearce notes that growing business confidence will not necessarily translate to higher corporate travel numbers because companies are likely to be reluctant to allow their staff to travel while the risk of infection remains. The majority of passengers travel for leisure or to visit friends and family, but confidence among this constituency also remains low. Besides domestic Chinese demand, "[in] other key markets – the US, Germany, UK – we've not really seen a pick-up at all in confidence", Pearce points out. IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac offers a frank assessment: "May was not quite as terrible as April. That's about the best thing that can be said. "As predicted, the first improvements in passenger demand are occurring in domestic markets. International traffic remained virtually stopped in May. "We are only at the very beginning of a long and difficult recovery. And there is tremendous uncertainty about what impact a resurgence of new Covid-19 cases in key markets could have."

Source: Cirium

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has completed three days of flight tests on the Boeing 737 Max ahead of a possible recertification in the coming weeks. The flights were an important milestone in the process to bring the troubled aircraft back into service and end its almost 16-month grounding following two fatal accidents. “During three days of testing this week, FAA pilots and engineers evaluated Boeing’s proposed changes in connection with the automated flight control system on the aircraft,” the FAA said on 1 July. “While completion of the flights is an important milestone, a number of key tasks remain, including evaluating the data gathered during these flights.” “The agency is following a deliberate process and will take the time it needs to thoroughly review Boeing’s work. We will lift the grounding order only after FAA safety experts are satisfied that the aircraft meets certification standards,” the regulatory body says. Certification flights are among the final steps prior to the FAA issuing an airworthiness directive (AD) lifting the grounding. The AD will specify measures operators must take before returning the jets to revenue service. Boeing has said it expects the AD will come in time to permit it to resume 737 Max deliveries in the third quarter of the year. According to flight tracking website Flightradar24, the aircraft with the tail number N7201S completed about 10 hours of flight time over Washington state and neighbouring Idaho on 29 and 30 June, and 1 July. The FAA must still review and approve Boeing’s final design documentation and the regulator’s Flight Standardization Board (FSB) as well as the Joint Operations Evaluation Board (JOEB) - which includes partners from other non-US jurisdictions - will evaluate pilot training requirements. The type was grounded worldwide in March 2019 after two separate accidents killed 346 passengers and crew. The aircraft’s new Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) was at fault in both crashes. Earlier in the day another government watchdog issued a scathing report that blasted Boeing for misleading regulators and purposefully holding back information about MCAS during the aircraft’s certification process. The FAA was kept in the dark about potential dangers of the flawed system, and therefore it was not able to adequately test or otherwise address it.

Source: Cirium

Thailand will ease a ban on international passenger flights into the country on 1 July, nearly three months after first imposing it on 4 April. The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand said in a 29 June notice that it would permit international passenger flights to operate into Thailand carrying 11 permitted categories of passenger. These include: returning Thai nationals; foreign nationals with a valid Thai work permit, or studying in the country; and any passenger covered by a "special arrangement" with a foreign country. However, the authority did not specify if transit passengers were allowed to travel through Thai airports, or when scheduled international passenger flights could fully resume. The notice further states that Thailand will continue to allow state or military aircraft, emergency landings, aircraft making technical stops, cargo and repatriation flights, and humanitarian, medical and relief missions into the country. The move to ease the ban on international passenger flights came as Thailand extended its national state of emergency by an additional month to 31 July. Singapore newspaper The Straits Times has reported that businesspeople and technical experts from China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea will be allowed to enter Thailand under special arrangements, but will be quarantined for 14 days upon arrival. Since May, Thai carriers such as Bangkok Airways, Thai AirAsia, and Thai Lion Air have resumed domestic flights. However, Thai Airways and Thai AirAsia X have not said as to when flights will resume. NokScoot, meanwhile, is set to cease operations. It announced on 26 June that its board had decided to liquidate the company, and that shareholders would “deliberate the same resolution” at a general meeting in "about 14 days". All seven Boeing 777-200ERs the long-haul airline used to operate will be returned to Singapore Airlines. Thailand, with a population of about 66 million, has nearly 3,200 confirmed coronavirus cases and 58 deaths as of 30 June, based on data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Source: Cirium