As a health emergency, the Covid-19 crisis will soon enough shift gears; residents of Wuhan are emerging from lockdown and restrictions on daily life will ease in other hard-hit regions. This scourge will likely be manageable and expectations of an ongoing public health struggle may prove overly pessimistic. But whatever the long-term impact of this tragedy, spring 2020 will leave aviation to grapple with a series of shocks. When travel restrictions relax, expect some rapid recovery to satisfy pent-up demand for must-do travel. But that surge of activity may be short lived. The economic reality is that a worldwide recession was looming even before pandemic made it a hammering reality. Thus for the medium term – two or three years at least – the economic environment will be characterised by interest rates at essentially zero and very low oil prices, with corporate and personal debt dangerously high. Demand for travel will be way down on levels only recently assumed to prevail. Hence demand for new aircraft will be very weak; there are plenty of perfectly serviceable examples in storage and in a cheap fuel recession there is no financial incentive to pay money for replacements with more efficient engines. Talk of a unique post-pandemic opportunity for a “green reset” that pushes aviation along the path to a more sustainable future is wishful thinking. Reality check: governments will not impose taxes on tickets and fuel; airlines will focus on survival, which means devising viable business models that downsize fleets and fill seats while rebalancing volume and margin. As most people will be wary of spending hours packed at close quarters with potential virus carriers, an increasing percentage of those seats will be in expanded business-class cabins. For Airbus, Boeing and their multitude of suppliers, the days of planning for an output ramp-up are ancient history. For them, this rebalancing of volume and margin will mean fewer aircraft but cannot mean higher prices – so the answer must lie in imaginative finance. Here, a page from the automotive industry’s market distress playbook may be handy – create attractive grant and finance schemes that encourage airlines to scrap old aircraft for new. For the foreseeable future, new aircraft will burn money. But the fact that they also burn less fuel has green appeal that may even attract some much-needed largesse from governments and lenders.

Source: Cirium

The US government has reapproved GE Aviation’s application to supply engines for Comac’s C919 narrowbody programme, months after it mulled blocking engine sales. The enginemaker states the licence to supply CFM International Leap-1C engines will last for a term of four years. It did not indicate when the application was approved. “We are pleased that the [US] administration has come to this decision, and look to continue to serve our customers in China and beyond,” the company adds. CFM is a joint venture between GE and France’s Safran. In mid-February, media reports emerged that the US government was considering blocking the sale of the Leap-1C engine to China, with additional export limits on other systems, such as Honeywell flight-control systems. However, US president Donald Trump waded into the debate a day later, tweeting that he wanted “China to buy our jet engines, the best in the world”. He also blasted proposals that would make it difficult to sell engines and other components into the Chinese market. Apart from powering the C919, other variants of the Leap are also an option for the Airbus A320neo, and the exclusive powerplant for the grounded Boeing 737 Max. GE has obtained export licences from the US government for the Leap-1C engines since 2014, having most recently received one in March 2019. Comac has six C919 test aircraft flying, all fitted with the Leap-1C. It has more than 300 Leap-powered aircraft in its order book. Comac is looking at a 2021-2022 date for the C919’s service entry. Other than CFM engines, the C919 will also be fitted with Chinese-made powerplants. Progress on the developmental CJ-1000AX high-bypass turbofan, manufactured by AECC Commercial Aircraft Engine, is still unclear. It was reported in 2018 that the CJ-1000AX demonstrator engine achieved power-on. Chinese media reports indicate the CJ-1000AX is looking to enter service in 2021.

Source: Cirium

New Zealand’s air navigation service provider Airways could halt air traffic control at seven regional sites across the nation, as part of efforts against the coronavirus-induced slump in traffic. There are limited or no commercial services operating at these seven airports, it said in a statement today. Under review are the towers at Hawke's Bay, Gisborne, New Plymouth, Rotorua and Invercargill airports, as well as the airfield flight information service at Kapiti Coast airport and Milford Sound Piopiotahi Aerodrome. Airways operates 17 towers across New Zealand and will commence a two-week consultation process with unions next week. Chief executive Graeme Sumner said it is not viable to continue the same level of service at those sites, where traffic had been low even before the outbreak of Covid-19. “We now need to consider operating different services at these airports or that they operate as uncontrolled airspace in the same way as other uncontrolled aerodromes in New Zealand that have no Airways service – including Kerikeri, Taupo, Whangarei and Timaru airports,” he says. Airways tells Cirium that could mean digital services in the future, where controllers manage traffic from a remote location, but highlights that the company will work through a consultation process before any firm decisions are made. Last year, Airways awarded a contract to Austria-based communications and information systems supplier Frequentis to develop a digital tower system for Invercargill airport. Such towers are already in operation in Europe, including in Sweden, Norway and Germany.

Source: Cirium