Airlines continue to suspend international flight capacity to mainland China in the wake of the outbreak of the new coronavirus as the World Health Organisation (WHO) declares it an international public health emergency. Since the outbreak emerged earlier in January, a number of international carriers have acted to cancel flights. While these initially focused on the city at the source of outbreak, Wuhan, it has more recently spread to wider international flights network serving the Chinese mainland. Air France and KLM on 30 January become the latest European airlines to temporarily suspend scheduled flights The two carriers had already pulled some China flights - including Air France’s Wuhan service - but will now suspend their respective Beijing and Shanghai flights until 9 February. Turkish Airlines has also now announced that to “evaluate the situation” regarding the outbreak, it is suspending its flights to the Chinese cities of Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Xi’an. Finnair had already cancelled its flights to Beijing Daxing and Nanjing following the suspension of group travel by the Chinese authorities - though it has retained its flights to Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai - while British Airways and Lufthansa Group carriers suspended their flights to the Chinese mainland on 29 January. Likewise North American carriers have taken action. US majors American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have all cut back their capacity, while Air Canada has pulled its mainland China flights altogether. The WHO had initially stopped short of declaring the outbreak as a global public health emergency at a meeting on 22 January, though noted it would review the situation given its fast development. Now following a second meeting of its Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak, it declared on 30 January that the outbreak of the coronavirus in China constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. WHO says there have been 170 deaths so far from outbreak – which has now has 7,711 confirmed cases and more than 12,000 suspected cases It also says there are now 83 cases in 18 countries. Of these, only seven had no history of travel in China. Whilst crediting China for its strong action in working to limit the spread of the virus, the Emergency Committee judged that the outbreak now meets the criteria for a public health emergency of international concern.

Source: Cirium

American Airlines pilots, represented by the Allied Pilots Association (APA), have filed a lawsuit seeking an immediate halt to the carrier’s flights to mainland China. This came shortly after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak in China an international public health emergency on 30 January. The union represents 15,000 pilots flying for the carrier. It notes in its lawsuit that American currently operates about 56 monthly flights between Dallas/Fort Worth International airport and China. Furthermore, the carrier’s plans to suspend flights between Los Angeles International airport and China do not take effect until 9 February. Cirium schedules that shows that for the month of January, American Airlines scheduled 108 direct flights between Dallas Fort Worth and Los Angeles to Beijing Capital and Shanghai Pudong airports in China. This currently stands at 98 in February and 121 in March. APA estimates that each American crew member working a trip to China needs to be on the ground for approximately 32 hours between flights to comply with federal rest regulations. “We estimate that as many as 300 passengers and crew travel to Dallas/Forth Worth alone from Chinese cities on each American Airlines flight. To us, that level of risk is unacceptable,” says APA president, Eric Ferguson. The union also refers to warnings issued by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and advisories by other health organisations against all non-essential travel to China. It notes that other carriers have suspended flights to China “out of an abundance of caution”. “The APA leadership has asked American Airlines management to follow suit, but to date they have not cancelled any US-China flights. We are therefore compelled to seek injunctive relief,” says APA. In a 30 January statement, Ferguson implored APA members to decline assignments to China “Due to the known and unknown risks associated with traveling to China right now, concurrent with the filing of our lawsuit, we are directing all American Airlines pilots assigned to flights between the United States and China, other than those on return trips to the United States, to decline the assignment.”

Source: Cirium

Jet-fuel prices have nosedived in Europe on the back of soft purchases, although weak import levels mean that values could swing higher towards the end of the month. Data issued by energy information service ICIS – a corporate sibling of Cirium within RELX – shows that the price of jet fuel delivered to northwest Europe by barge declined from $660 per tonne at the start of January to around $540 on 28 January, a fall of 18%. There were similar downward movements in the USA and Asia. "Outright prices in the European spot jet kerosene market fell considerably this week, primarily due to fluctuations in upstream Brent crude futures coupled with slowing demand," writes ICIS in the 28 January report. Few large-scale purchases of jet fuel were made over the week, in line with the soft seasonal flying period. Mild winter weather also subdued demand for related heating kerosene, helping to push prices lower. "That said, supply-side woes pertaining to relatively lower imports schedule for the last week of January and first week of Feb, coupled with disruptions caused during France strikes, have led to drawdown in stocks supporting upswing in differentials," notes ICIS. Still, significant price rises are not likely until holiday-season flying ramps up in the second quarter. One "major airline operator" notes that so far there is little impact on jet-fuel demand from the recent coronavirus outbreak in China, although weak travel demand combined with the Chinese New Year celebrations could lead to rerouting of jet-fuel supplies from Asia to Europe and the USA. In the USA, jet-fuel inventories have increased on ample supplies, weak demand and ongoing mild weather, which could indicate subdued prices going forward.

Source: Cirium