Air France-KLM's chief executive Ben Smith is confident that the carrier's takeover of Scandinavian rival SAS will face less scrutiny from European regulators than Lufthansa’s attempted purchase of ITA or IAG’s acquisition of Air Europa.
This is because the group’s takeover of SAS would not give create dominant position in the Scandinavian carrier’s home markets, which are also not slot-constrained, Smith asserted during the group’s first quarter results on 29 April. This should make the deal relatively straightforward for the European Commission to approve, he adds.
In contrast, Lufthansa’s takeover of ITA would give the combined carrier a huge position at slot-constrained Milan Linate in particular, presenting “quite a challenge” for the Commission, Smith argues, requiring remedies to let the deal go through.“That's at least our sense,” comments Smith. “I think [the dominance at Linate] perhaps could be holding things up, or slowing things down.” He adds that, given ITA’s long-haul network is “quite weak”, a large proportion of Italy’s intercontinental capacity is travelling on a one-stop basis. “That's a new thing for the European Commission to have to figure out a way to keep things in check, because if you look at the long-haul network today of ITA, it's not very extensive.” The problem this presents is that the deal with Lufthansa would therefore place a greater share of passengers onto the Germany-based airline’s hubs, which would be to the “detriment of IAG.” “So that's the other aspect,” he adds. “I think on the medium haul point-to-point [traffic], standard type of remedies are relatively straightforward. It's the long-haul that we're concerned [about], and I think the European Commission has to find a way to ensure that there is a solution ensuring there's market stability and fairness. In March the Commission expressed concerns about the transaction, particularly the impact at Linate, plus the effect on short-haul routes connecting Italy with central Europe and long-haul routes from Italy to the USA, Canada and Japan. Lufthansa has offered up remedies to allay these concerns, saying recently that it expects clearance ahead of the summer. Turning to IAG’s efforts to acquire Air Europa, Smith notes that this would result in the company having a dominant position in Madrid, which could raise regulator concerns. Last month, the Commission said as part of a “statement of objections” that it was worried that such a deal could hurt competition in Spain, leading to higher prices and a deterioration in service quality. As with Lufthansa, it is demanding remedies from IAG to enable the deal to proceed.In contrast, “for us in Copenhagen and in Stockholm, the airports are open and the position that we'll be in, we will not be in a position of dominance,” says Smith. “There'll be obviously some synergies that come out of it, but I don't think it's the same thing as [at] Linate or the huge concentration that IAG and the combination of IAG [and Air Europa would have at] Madrid. So I think they're unique transactions.” In November 2023 a consortium including Air France-KLM disclosed plans to purchase the bulk of SAS once the carrier left Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the USA, which is expected around the middle 2024. Air France-KLM have agreed to buy just under 20% of the company initially, with an option to raise its involvement to a controlling position after two years.