Airline Risk Calculator (ARC)

Indian low-cost carrier IndiGo has not been made aware of any plans by the family of co-founder Rakesh Gangwal to sell a large stake in the airline.

India's CNBC Awaaz business channel reported on 12 June that Gangwal will sell a 5-8% stake in the airline, potentially worth up to Rs75 billion ($911 million).

The report indicates that a lock-up on some of the Gangwal family's shares will expire in mid-July. Following the report, the Bombay Stock Exchange sent a query to IndiGo's parent company InterGlobe Aviation, which responded on 13 June that "the company has not received any such information nor has the company been made aware by the co-founder of their intention to sell the stake". BSE data shows that Gangwal, his wife Shobha and their family trust collectively hold a 29.7% stake in the company. The Gangwal family have been gradually selling down their stake in Interglobe in recent years, amid a strained relationship with the company and co-founder and managing director Rahul Bhatia. In 2021 the company agreed to pay Rs21 million to settle a dispute with India's securities regulator which stemmed from a 2019 document from Gangwal that alleged a series of governance violations.

Airbus predicts that newly delivered aircraft will increasingly be used to replace in-service equipment, rather than for airline fleet growth, in the coming years. In its latest global market forecast (GMF), the European airframer projects demand for 40,850 new aircraft across the categories of 100-plus-seat passenger jets and freighters through 2042 – up from 39,490 predicted in its forecast last year. The overall in-service fleet in 2042, however, is projected to be marginally smaller – at 46,560 aircraft – than last year's forecast for 2041 (46,930). Airbus notes its latest in-service fleet forecast is even lower than its pre-pandemic one for 2038, but the number of expected deliveries has grown in the meantime. "What we are seeing is a reduction in the number of aircraft staying in the fleet," the airframer's head of business analysis and market forecast, Bob Lange, said during a media briefing on 13 June. The reduced fleet outlook is partly a result of fewer aircraft retirements over the past three years compared with typical decommissioning numbers in previous years, he says. Lange observes that older aircraft stay in service for longer because of equipment parked amid the pandemic which have not returned since, and due to post-Covid supply constraints at manufacturers for new aircraft. "This doesn't mean those aircraft will stay in service forever. But it means when a lease is being extended for two or three years, that take-out point has gone back two to three years," he comments. In its latest delivery forecast, Airbus expects an increase in the proportion of aircraft used for replacement, to 17,170 – or 42% – from previously 15,440 (39%). The airframer attributes the projected demand increase for replacement to greater sustainability efforts by airlines and states "the pace of fleet renewal towards the most fuel-efficient aircraft will likely accelerate" in future. Airbus estimates that latest-generation aircraft – for example the A320neo-family, A350, Boeing 737 Max and 787 – represent a quarter of today's in-service fleet. A rough split of 80% single-aisles and 20% widebodies among new deliveries has not changed from previous forecasts. Lange notes, however, that the boundary between the categories is blurred as latest-generation single-aisles are being used for long-haul routes, while widebodies may be deployed on shorter services with high passenger volumes. China and the remaining Asia-Pacific region will each account for 23% of new deliveries, according to Airbus's latest forecast. North America and Europe (including CIS countries) will have shares of 17% and 20%, respectively, while carriers in the Middle East will account for 8%. Lange highlights that China domestic air transport still is among the largest growth markets for the airframer in terms of traffic volume – but not in terms of growth rate. The fastest growing markets, he adds, are now elsewhere in Asia Pacific and cites India and Vietnam as examples. In the cargo segment, Airbus predicts demand for 2,510 freighters, while the in-service fleet is set to grow to 3,230 aircraft, from 1,990 in early 2020. Of the additional freighter requirement – split almost evenly between aircraft for replacement and growth – Airbus predicts 1,590 passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions and 920 new-built aircraft. Demand for new-built freighters will be mainly in the large widebody segment, where Airbus predicts scope for 600 aircraft. Airbus and Boeing have launched freighter variants for the A350 and in-development 777X, respectively, for that segment. In the single-aisle and mid-size widebody segment, meanwhile, additional freighters will be predominantly supplied via P2F conversions. Airbus foresees demand for 1,020 single-aisle and 890 mid-size widebody freighters.