ARC NEWS
​Ryanair sees 14-fold increase in April passenger numbers
May 06, 2022
Ryanair Group carried 14.2 million passengers in April, against 1.5 million in the same month last year. The budget airline says the figure increased 27% versus March 2022. Ryanair operated over 82,600 flights in the month with a load factor of 91%, compared to a load factor of 67% a year earlier.


Fitch downgrades Air Canada 2013-1 EETC ratings
May 05, 2022
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Air Canada's 2013-1 class B certificates to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' and affirmed the airline's remaining enhanced equipment trust certificate (EETC) ratings including the 2020-2, 2017-1, 2015-1 senior and subordinated certificates and the 2013-1 class A certificates. The downgrade of the 2013-1 class B certificates reflects modest declines in Boeing 777-300ER values, the US-based ratings agency says. Affirmation factors within the pools are unchanged, as Air Canada's fleet renewal is largely in line with Fitch's prior expectations, it adds. High affirmation factors and the presence of a liquidity facilities support the subordinated tranche notching from Air Canada's 'B+' issuer default rating, Fitch says. Fitch has affirmed Air Canada's 2017-1 class AA certificates at 'AA-'. This is supported by adequate LTV headroom in Fitch's AA stress scenario and is in line with similar transactions issued by British Airways and United Airlines. Fitch calculates the maximum stress scenario LTV in this transaction at 89%, relatively unchanged from prior review, while LTVs are supported by principle amortisation and relatively stable values for the 737 Max 8 and 787-9. Fitch views both aircraft types as being well positioned to hold their value as air traffic continues to rebound, it says. The support is offset partially by an increase in Fitch's depreciation rate assumption that increases to 6% from 5%. Fitch has affirmed Air Canada's 2017-1 and 2015-1 Class A certificates at 'A' as the transactions continue to pass its 'A' level stress tests, reflecting relatively stable collateral values over the past year. The two certifications see LTVs nearly unchanged from Fitch's prior review at 89% and 84%, respectively. Collateral for the 2017-1 and 2015-1 transactions consists of the newest generation technology aircraft including 737 Maxs and 787s, which have held up well through the pandemic. The 2020-2 and 2013-1 Class A certificates have been held at 'A-' and 'BBB', respectively. The 2020-2 class A certificates pass Fitch's 'A' stress level with material LTV headroom improving modestly to 83% supported by its relatively rapid amortisation profile. The tranche could see rating upside if the widebodies, particularly the 777 values continue to stabilise on the back of a recovery in long haul air travel as the tranche amortises down, Fitch says. The 2013-1 class A certificates saw stress scenario LTVs rise to 99% in Fitch's 'BBB' level stress scenario, driven primarily by the 777 values declining slightly above Fitch's prior expectation for first quarter coupled with a higher depreciation rate assumption going forward. The higher depreciation rate is due to Fitch's treatment of the 777-300ER as a tier two aircraft and an additional 1% depreciation rate across all transactions. Fitch has downgraded the 2013-1 class B certificates to 'BB+' from 'BBB-', driven by the certificates' weakening recovery prospects. The 2013-1 consists entirely of 777-300ERs, which Fitch has considered to be tier two aircraft and expects their values under more pressure under a stress scenario than a tier one. The affirmation of the 2020-2 class B rating at 'BBB-' reflects a four-notch uplift from the corporate rating consisting of three notches for a high affirmation factor and one notch for the presence of a liquidity facility, Fitch says. Fitch has also affirmed Air Canada's 2017-1 and 2015-1 class B certificates at 'BBB', one notch higher than AC's other class B certificates reflecting better recovery prospects. Affirmation factor for these transactions is also high.


Qantas to fully acquire Alliance Aviation
May 05, 2022
Qantas has reached an agreement to fully acquire Australia's Alliance Aviation Services to better serve the growing resources sector. The agreement is subject to a vote from Alliance shareholders and competition clearance, and would see Alliance become a wholly-owned part of the Qantas Group, Qantas says in a statement today. Qantas bought just under 20% of Alliance in February 2019 and at the time flagged its long-term interest in acquiring 100% of the airline. It adds that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission investigated that minority holding for three years and made no findings that it lessened competition. Under the latest agreement, Qantas will acquire the remaining 80% stake in Alliance through a scheme of arrangement where Alliance shareholders receive Qantas shares worth A$4.75 ($3.44) for each Alliance share they hold, representing a 32% premium to Alliance's volume weighted average price for the past three months. Qantas said it would issue new shares valued at approximately A$614 million in a transaction that is expected to be earnings per share accretive for Qantas shareholders, before synergies. Qantas adds that there is no change to its arrangements with Alliance as a result of this announcement given the approvals required, which would take a minimum of several months to secure. Qantas Group chief executive Alan Joyce says that acquiring the remaining shares in Alliance would mean QantasLink can better compete in the highly competitive charter segment, particularly given the shared fleet type of Fokker aircraft. Alliance, which has a fleet of 70 jet aircraft that seat up to 100 people each, accounts for around 2% of the total domestic market between these charter services and a small number of passenger routes that overlap with large mine sites, according to Qantas. Qantas is Alliance's biggest single customer, with a long-term agreement that sees Alliance operate up to 18 newly acquired Embraer E190 jets for QantasLink. This arrangement has helped open new direct routes and increase frequency across regional Australia, it says. Joyce adds: "Alliance's fleet of Fokker aircraft is perfect for efficiently serving resources customers in Western Australia and Queensland. They also have a big inventory of spare parts that would significantly extend the practical life of a combined fleet of around almost 70 Fokkers." Qantas says it will continue to update the market on expected completion timing as the competition clearance and Alliance shareholder vote processes progress.


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