ARC NEWS
​Airbus supplier delays 'very significant': chief
May 06, 2022
Airbus has highlighted stepped-up efforts to manage supply-chain hold-ups as it outlined a plan to raise monthly A320-family production to 75 aircraft in 2025. Chief executive Guillaume Faury said during a results briefing on 4 May that the European airframer had encountered disruptions at its assembly lines because of suppliers' struggles to deliver equipment on time as production increased amid the fading effects of the pandemic. "What is changing tremendously is the ability of suppliers to deliver on time," Faury says. Dealing with the consequences is, he notes, is "time-consuming and quite expensive". He adds: "This is indeed very significant." Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the increased output, Faury says Airbus's efforts to manage supplier disruptions is "by far higher" now than during the past two years. He says the airframer is "managing the crisis one by one" and "putting a lot of resources" in to ensure that hold-ups do not slow down final assembly lines and potentially delay aircraft deliveries. Beyond supply-chain bottlenecks, Faury acknowledges that the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have created additional headwinds in a "complex environment". In the past, Airbus sourced around 50% of its titanium requirements from Russian supplier VSMPO Avisma. Faury says the airframer has secured titanium provisions for the short and medium term, and is talking to alternative suppliers to meet future demand. Longer term, Faury is confident that supply-chain bottlenecks will be overcome and that the airframer will be able to ramp up production beyond a first target of reaching Rate 65 on the A320 family in mid-2023. He says Airbus assessed a "very large" number of suppliers – the "most important" ones – on their ability to increase production. "It's always possible to ramp up beyond a certain aircraft [number] in a certain timeframe," he suggests. The approximately two-year schedule to reach Rate 75 in 2025, from 65 in mid-2023, provides "enough time to have the speed of ramp-up that is consistent with what the supply chain will be able to deliver", he says. Following up on his comments in February that Airbus wanted to decide by June whether to ramp up production beyond Rate 65, he says the airframer has accelerated the decision timeframe "because the indicators were telling us we had the conditions to launch the rate increase". Airbus plans to increase the ramp-up at its final assembly lines in Toulouse, Hamburg, Mobile and Tianjin, he notes. The industrial footprint at the US site in Mobile will be increased as part of the plan. In Toulouse, a former A380 production line is being adapted for A321 assembly, to enable Airbus to manufacture the variant – now the A320neo series' most successful model – at all production sites. In the widebody segment – all assembled in Toulouse – Airbus wants to increase monthly A350 production to "around six" in 2023 and A330 output to "almost three" a month by year-end. On the A220 programme, meanwhile, Airbus targets 14 aircraft by 2025. That narrowbody is being assembled in Montreal and Mobile.


​Ryanair sees 14-fold increase in April passenger numbers
May 06, 2022
Ryanair Group carried 14.2 million passengers in April, against 1.5 million in the same month last year. The budget airline says the figure increased 27% versus March 2022. Ryanair operated over 82,600 flights in the month with a load factor of 91%, compared to a load factor of 67% a year earlier.


Fitch downgrades Air Canada 2013-1 EETC ratings
May 05, 2022
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Air Canada's 2013-1 class B certificates to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' and affirmed the airline's remaining enhanced equipment trust certificate (EETC) ratings including the 2020-2, 2017-1, 2015-1 senior and subordinated certificates and the 2013-1 class A certificates. The downgrade of the 2013-1 class B certificates reflects modest declines in Boeing 777-300ER values, the US-based ratings agency says. Affirmation factors within the pools are unchanged, as Air Canada's fleet renewal is largely in line with Fitch's prior expectations, it adds. High affirmation factors and the presence of a liquidity facilities support the subordinated tranche notching from Air Canada's 'B+' issuer default rating, Fitch says. Fitch has affirmed Air Canada's 2017-1 class AA certificates at 'AA-'. This is supported by adequate LTV headroom in Fitch's AA stress scenario and is in line with similar transactions issued by British Airways and United Airlines. Fitch calculates the maximum stress scenario LTV in this transaction at 89%, relatively unchanged from prior review, while LTVs are supported by principle amortisation and relatively stable values for the 737 Max 8 and 787-9. Fitch views both aircraft types as being well positioned to hold their value as air traffic continues to rebound, it says. The support is offset partially by an increase in Fitch's depreciation rate assumption that increases to 6% from 5%. Fitch has affirmed Air Canada's 2017-1 and 2015-1 Class A certificates at 'A' as the transactions continue to pass its 'A' level stress tests, reflecting relatively stable collateral values over the past year. The two certifications see LTVs nearly unchanged from Fitch's prior review at 89% and 84%, respectively. Collateral for the 2017-1 and 2015-1 transactions consists of the newest generation technology aircraft including 737 Maxs and 787s, which have held up well through the pandemic. The 2020-2 and 2013-1 Class A certificates have been held at 'A-' and 'BBB', respectively. The 2020-2 class A certificates pass Fitch's 'A' stress level with material LTV headroom improving modestly to 83% supported by its relatively rapid amortisation profile. The tranche could see rating upside if the widebodies, particularly the 777 values continue to stabilise on the back of a recovery in long haul air travel as the tranche amortises down, Fitch says. The 2013-1 class A certificates saw stress scenario LTVs rise to 99% in Fitch's 'BBB' level stress scenario, driven primarily by the 777 values declining slightly above Fitch's prior expectation for first quarter coupled with a higher depreciation rate assumption going forward. The higher depreciation rate is due to Fitch's treatment of the 777-300ER as a tier two aircraft and an additional 1% depreciation rate across all transactions. Fitch has downgraded the 2013-1 class B certificates to 'BB+' from 'BBB-', driven by the certificates' weakening recovery prospects. The 2013-1 consists entirely of 777-300ERs, which Fitch has considered to be tier two aircraft and expects their values under more pressure under a stress scenario than a tier one. The affirmation of the 2020-2 class B rating at 'BBB-' reflects a four-notch uplift from the corporate rating consisting of three notches for a high affirmation factor and one notch for the presence of a liquidity facility, Fitch says. Fitch has also affirmed Air Canada's 2017-1 and 2015-1 class B certificates at 'BBB', one notch higher than AC's other class B certificates reflecting better recovery prospects. Affirmation factor for these transactions is also high.


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