ARC NEWS
​Moody's downgrades SAS on liquidity drop and traffic weakness
March 25, 2021
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded SAS's corporate family and probability-of-default ratings. In a 19 March report, the agency cites a "sharp deterioration" in the airline's liquidity profile since October's capital injection by shareholders, along with a weak passenger-traffic outlook for European carriers amid rising Covid-19 infection rates and a "very slow start" to the region's vaccination programme. SAS's corporate family rating has been downgraded to "Caa1" from "B3" and its probability-of-default rating to "Caa1-PD" from "B3-PD". Moody's has also downgraded the Scandinavian airline's baseline credit assessment to "Caa2" from "Caa1" and its senior unsecured medium-term note programme to "(P)B3" from "(P)B2". The agency has changed its outlook for SAS to negative from stable. Given the slow start to the vaccination programmes of most European countries, Moody's says it is "difficult to envisage with strong confidence a meaningful reduction in infection rates for the important summer season". The agency expects the passenger-traffic outlook for European markets to be "very subdued for the first half of calendar-year 2021 at least", based on accelerating Covid-19 infection rates across Europe since late February/early March,.
Moody's adds that its view of the long-term recovery of SAS's credit metrics is "not materially impacted" by its short-term downgrade.


Aegean to make second attempt to amend €200 million loan
March 25, 2021
Aegean Airlines has tabled another virtual bondholders' meeting later this month to seek approval for amendments to a €200 million ($238 million) common bond loan (CBL), after failing to secure the go-ahead today. The Greek carrier disclosed in a 24 March statement that the required quorum to decide on the proposed amendments could not be reached at today's meeting because "bondholders representing less than 20% of the outstanding principal of the CBL were present". It has therefore scheduled a repeat virtual bondholders' meeting for 30 March, during which it will make a second attempt to win approval for the changes. The proposed amendments include adjusting the period over which financial covenants are calculated, and changing the use of 14% of the net proceeds raised by the CBL from financing the construction of a training centre and offices at Athens airport to being used for working capital. Earlier this month, Aegean's shareholders approved plans to raise at least €60 million through a share capital increase, clearing the way for the airline to receive €120 million of state aid.


​Kenya Airways expects recovery to take three to four years
March 24, 2021
Kenya Airways has warned that "the worst year in the history of aviation", which drove it to massive losses in 2020, will result in depressed passenger numbers until at least 2023. Turnover fell nearly 60% and losses more than tripled to KShs37 billion ($337 million) last year. “It has been a tough year where we have faced unprecedented challenges," states chief executive Allan Kilavuka. "The situation continues to be difficult even as we gradually resume our operations, mainly due to the depressed demand for air travel, with recovery to 2019 levels expected to take between three to four years." He adds: "The scale of this challenge requires substantial change so we are in a competitive and resilient position to address the impact of Covid-19 and withstand any longer-term reductions in customer demand and any economic shocks or events that could affect the airline." Seat capacity was cut 47% and available seat-kilometres 57.6%. Passenger numbers fell 65% to 1.8 million, of whom the bulk travelled in the first quarter of the year before the pandemic fully hit. Kenya Airways says it operated a "a few" repatriation flights through the year, and cargo operations were ramped up to assist its home country's exports to Europe. Amid a lack of belly capacity on passenger flights, cargo volumes actually decreased 28%, but cargo earnings rose on stronger rates. The Kenyan government ordered the country's airline industry to largely shut down from April to August in a bid to curb the spread of Covid-19. Some domestic and international operations were restarted from mid-July and 1 August, respectively, but most services remain grounded. Costs declined 39%, as operating expenses fell 69%. However, fixed costs only edged lower, by 3.1%, helping to drive the African carrier's loss margin to 51%, a 50-point deterioration from 2019. Airline chairman Michael Joseph states: "While nobody could have predicted the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020, its continued prevalence globally, and the fact that the industry projects demand to remain at levels lower than 2019, Kenya Airways emphasises its commitment to an efficient network, improvement of service quality and delivery. We have taken bold measures to protect our people and our guests as we restructure our business to position for recovery."


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