One of the risks for the airline industry when some kind of normality returns is states using the cover of public health to protect struggling carriers by restricting market access. For IATA’s vice-president for members and external relations, Sebastian Mikosz, that would be a nice problem to have, given where the industry is today. “That’s what we’d like to avoid,” Mikosz noted in an interview ahead of this year’s IATA AGM, which takes place on 24 November. “But to be honest, I would love to have this problem. It is one step after another. And we have a situation today where we have the winter long-haul traffic plan at 10% of pre-Covid levels in certain areas.” Mikosz, the former LOT Polish Airlines and Kenya Airways chief executive, took up the role at IATA in June. The wide-ranging mandate covers relations with IATA’s airline members, industry partners, governments and stakeholders. It encompasses issues like its networking events – IATA holds around 90 gatherings annually – as well as the ever-hot topic of tackling aviation’s impact on climate change. But, given he took up the role at the height of the crisis, the focus is clear. “At a personal level I am very happy to be here, even though this is not what we discussed when I was joining IATA,” he says. “We have taken a shift from a booming industry with a huge prospect of development, with a problem on congestion, with a problem of noise, a lack infrastructure, to one in just a few weeks, where the whole purpose for us as a trade organisation is to restart the industry. “It’s not a bump in the road, we have been put to a stop. You have statistics which are unbelievable because there are months when most of the statistics were minus 99%. The speed at which the crisis arrived and then also the scale. And there is not a single country or market who can say ’oh, we heard about it, but actually it’s business as usual’. “So our job really is one and only. It is to be able to restart the industry, which means to start being able to plan in a predictable way the building of networks. It’s not about planes, pilots or airports – it’s about passengers coming back and buying tickets with the knowledge they will be able to travel.”

MOVIING OUT OF QUARANTINES
Critical to tackling this in the near term is persuading states to move away from the damaging quarantine measures that have been implemented to mitigate the spread of Covid. The key to this lies in the use of testing. IATA had already worked as a member and promoter of ICAO’s Council Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART), which earlier this year set out common standards to mitigate the spread of the disease through air travel. It has now done likewise to make additional recommendations through CART to help states replace quarantine with testing. The aim is to give passengers certainty they can travel. ”That’s the only target we have now – all the other targets are secondary,” he says, noting a return of stable networks and passenger flows is the only way to move airlines out of their current financial predicament. “We cannot have a system whereby our members keep running to their governments asking for money, because this is not a sustainable business model.” Airlines and the industry are increasingly promoting trials of rapid testing, for example American Airlines, British Airways and United Airlines have in recent days detailed plans for pre-departure testing on some transatlantic routes. But quarantines remain in place. ”We have seen very different appetites for risk and a very different approach to the eagerness to open markets – or try solutions to open markets,” he adds. ”We observe that even inside the European Union. You could expect that within the EU it would be natural that countries could agree on measures, but you can observe a theory of totally independent decisions without co-ordination – and that’s really a big challenge.” But progress on the availability and speed of tests, combined with encouraging recent news around the efficiency of potential vaccines, provides some reason for optimism that the industry can push on. ”We have the ICAO recommendation to introduce testing as an alternative to quarantines, which for us means we can start pushing and advocating for step-by-step market reopening from December. From what I call a survival mode in 2020 we are optimistic we are going to start the recovery next year, because there will be maybe more appetite from governments.” But he cautions 2021 will still be a challenging year for airlines. “It’s going to be the most difficult year because everyone is going to say it’s done, when it’s not done. Financial relief may not be available to the extent it was in 2020. Cost will be there, but passengers will not be there.” That restart brings with it the challenge for states of balancing not only the health risk versus the economic benefits of opening up air travel markets, but also how to support their national carriers. That may make it tempting for some states to cap market access to competitors under the guise of tackling the health crisis. ”We are concerned that temporary measures [could] remain, which is why we will be strong advocating any temporary measure that was introduced is lifted – because we do not want to see the return of some form of protectionism through sanitary needs,” says Mikosz. ”The moment we are going to be able to fly back, I would love to switch my radar to where are the obvious political decisions hidden by sanitary decisions, where it’s obviously over-protectionism. For the moment I’m nowhere near that.”

Singapore and Hong Kong have pushed back the start of air travel bubble arrangements, a day before it was due to commence, and following a spike in coronavirus cases in Hong Kong. In a Facebook post on 21 November, Singapore’s transport minister Ong Ye Kung says he and his Hong Kong counterpart have agreed to defer the launch date by two weeks, “given the evolving situation in Hong Kong”. “We will review within two weeks on the new launch date and update again,” Ong adds. The Singapore-Hong Kong travel bubble — the first such arrangement for both cities, and in Asia — was due to commence on 22 November. Ong’s comments come as Hong Kong faces a sudden surge in cases Media reports in Hong Kong state that on 20 November, the city saw more than 60 new confirmed and preliminary cases, of which 21 were locally transmitted cases. It was previously reported that travel bubble arrangements will be suspended for two weeks if the seven-day moving average number of unlinked coronavirus cases is more than five. Hours before both sides postponed the travel bubble arrangement, the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore announced that the travel bubble would still go ahead as planned, albeit with additional precautions in place — in the form of post-arrival Covid-19 polymerase chain reaction tests for Hong Kong travellers.Says Ong of the postponement: “I can fully understand the disappointment and frustration of travellers who have planned their trips. But we think it is better to defer from a public health standpoint.” The travel bubble allows for leisure travel to take place, without the need for a 14-day quarantine. Instead, travellers will be required to undergo pre- and post-arrival testing. Under the travel bubble arrangement, there will be daily flights — operated by Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific — from 22 November between both cities, and a cap of 200 passengers per flight.

Southwest Airlines expects a “minority” of passengers will opt not to travel on the newly recertificated Boeing 737 Max due to ongoing fears about the aircraft’s safety. Executives at the Dallas-based airline say on 19 November that while it understands these apprehensions, they are “proud” of the aircraft and looking forward to bringing it back to revenue service. The carrier plans to return stored aircraft to schedule flights from April, after each has gone through a rigorous process to make it airworthy. In addition, all the airline’s pilots will be sent through a comprehensive re-training that will include computer-based and simulator sessions. Yesterday’s Max announcements were very welcome and we have a clear path ahead to put the Max back in the air,” says chief executive Gary Kelly. “We are proud of this airplane.” On 18 November, the FAA lifted the aircraft’s 20-month grounding, which imposed in March 2019 following two crashes that killed 346 people. Despite the FAA’s stamp of approval, Southwest’s executives are aware the general public may be reluctant to fly on the aircraft. The carrier has set up a dedicated customer website with information for potential customers, and promises to be flexible if passengers choose not to ride on the Max.

NO REBRANDING
Some voices in the industry have suggested dropping “Max” from the aircraft’s type name, to eliminate negative stigmas.
“We bought the 737 Max 8 and we are proud of the 737 Max 8,” says Southwest president Tom Nealon. “It’s been through more evaluation and oversight than you can imagine. You can try to change the branding but we are proud of what we are flying. Over time that could certainly evolve, but our intent is not to change the name.” Southwest, with its all-737 fleet, is one of the top Max operators. It has 34 of the aircraft stored in Victorville, California, and another 233 on order with Boeing. Southwest says a maintenance team is already working on the stored aircraft, preparing them for service. The airline anticipates it can return eight aircraft weekly to service. It will take about 135 days for the aircraft to go from storage to revenue service-ready, says Landon Nitschke, the airline’s senior vice-president of technical operations. Whether the airline will bring all Max back at once, or do so sequentially, remains undecided, executives say. Kelly adds that the airline is negotiating with Boeing about the company’s orders and delivery schedules. After the coronavirus pandemic decimated the industry earlier this year, he says, Southwest is not looking to expand its fleet but rather to replace older aircraft with newer, more-efficient Max. “We have 734 airplanes in the fleet, we don’t need to increase our fleet size,” Kelly says. “We had an order and a plan. The grounding had some impact on our plan, not directly on the order, and then you had the pandemic, which has thrown everything way off. It puts the whole order into play.”

PILOT PREPARATION
Southwest’s Alan Kasher, senior vice-president of air operations, says all the carrier’s 8,000 pilots will be sent through Max training, including computer-based and simulator training. They will also repeat an introduction course that they had attended when the aircraft was first brought into the fleet. In total, training pilots should take two to three months. Prior to its first scheduled flight with passengers, the airline will conduct numerous “readiness flights” without passengers, in addition to the enhanced training, to prepare for the jet’s return to the schedule. “Our focus is on making sure that our pilots are very comfortable bringing the aircraft back to service,” he says, adding that there is currently “no feedback or any concerns”. “I have met not one pilot who is not confident in the Max,” chief executive Kelly says. However, on 18 November Southwest’s pilots’ union said it was ”very disappointed” and “dismayed” that some safety concerns it and other pilot unions raised were not incorporated into the FAA’s new airworthiness directive (AD) for the type. Kasher responds that the airline is “very comfortable” with the AD. ”The aircraft has had such an extensive review, and that review has gone far beyond the initial [software] issue,” Kasher says. “It has had an end-to-end review and not just with the FAA. There have been multiple agencies involved from across the globe. There has never been an aircraft that has been reviewed to the extent that this aircraft has.”