The price of purchasing jet kerosene in Europe jumped by around a quarter on 3 March as a shortage of supply from the Middle East roiled global markets. Delivery of product to northwest Europe rose by $251 per ton to $1,204 per ton on 3 March, compared with $953 on 2 March, as assessed by energy information service ICIS. That places it at the same level as in August 2022, when prices were elevated following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. ICIS notes that the scale of the increase "reflects Europe's structural reliance on Middle East jet imports while tanker availability is severely constrained". Around half of Europe's jet-fuel imports come from the Arabian Gulf, notes ICIS, and local inventories are set to rapidly deplete if travel through the Strait of Hormuz – a key corridor for global energy markets – remains restricted. That could force European traders to source jet fuel from the US East Coast at a much higher price. Jet fuel is vulnerable to potential shortages because differences in specification mean that barrels cannot be easily moved from one region to another.

Delta Air Lines has appointed Dan Janki chief operating officer, giving his former chief financial officer role to Erik Snell, who previously served as chief customer experience officer. The US major notes that Janki's new role follows the 30 April retirement of longtime operations leader John Laughter. Laughter served at Delta for more than three decades. In addition to being chief of operations, he was president of Delta TechOps. Alain Bellemare, EVP and president – international, will add leadership of TechOps to his responsibilities as the MRO arm's new chairman. Additionally, the Atlanta-based carrier has promoted executive vice-president of external affairs Peter Carter to president. It also disclosed that chief marketing officer Alicia Tillman "has decided to pursue broader leadership opportunities outside of Delta". Ranjan Goswami has replaced Tillman in the chief marketing officer role. Goswami currently serves as senior vice-president – customer experience for Delta, his LinkedIn profile shows. Janki, Snell, Carter and Goswami will all report directly to chief executive Ed Bastian, Delta says.

At the start of 2026, Europe's carriers were cautiously optimistic that the year would bring healthy sales and – with a bit of luck – even better profits than last year. Demand had been strong, with passengers showing determination to fly even if underlying economic conditions were not particularly great. Consumers seemed willing to prioritise travel and to pay for pricey premium seats. The North Atlantic market, a key earnings driver for legacy carriers, remained buoyant, even if Europeans were increasingly cautious about flying west. And the South Atlantic market was booming. Within Europe, tourists had been flocking south to leisure destinations in search of sun. Meanwhile, a lack of capacity was constraining supply and enabling carriers to keep prices high, and load factors regularly hit the 90s. In recent weeks, carriers have reported bumper earnings, giving share prices a boost. Air France‑KLM's stock jumped by a tenth on its full‑year earnings release in mid‑February; IAG was up 43% over the year to its 26 February peak. Even currency markets had been supportive. In the 12 months to 27 February, the euro appreciated 9% against the dollar, helping carriers to reduce costs – often denominated in the greenback – while earnings in euros and pounds strengthened. IATA estimates that a 1% weakening of the dollar typically lifts global airline profits by 1%. But with the launch of military action by the US and Israel on 28 February, the mood of optimism has taken a serious hit. The immediate impact is on legacy carriers which have already suspended routes to the region and, if the conflict drags on, could see damage to long-term demand. Cirium data shows that 7.6% of the combined long-haul capacity of IAG, Air France-KLM and Lufthansa Group is to the Middle East. There is also the impact on their wider networks. Already shut out of Russian airspace following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, carriers had rerouted flights to Asia south over Iran and the Middle East. Those routes are now closed, leaving just a narrow gap over Azerbaijan and Armenia – countries that were fighting as recently as 2023 – as the sole eastbound passage. Flight‑tracking data shows this space jam‑packed with aircraft. The extra complexity and distance will have knock‑on effects on fuel burn, crew planning and aircraft utilisation. European carriers have long argued they are disadvantaged versus Asian rivals on eastern routes, and the latest developments exacerbate that gap. Longer‑term implications centre on fuel. This accounted for 27% of European airlines' costs last year, estimates Dutch bank ING. That compares with 32% in 2023, when prices were higher. "When jet fuel prices go up, this quickly leads to higher costs," says Rico Luman, ING’s senior sector economist for transport. "Higher fuel prices could quickly erode tight margins in the short run for tickets already sold, forcing airlines to adjust pricing to protect revenues." Cirium Ascend Consultancy global head Stephen Burnside has pointed out that a $1 per‑barrel move in jet fuel adds roughly $2.86 billion to industry fuel spend. On that basis, global airline profits would be largely wiped out at around $76/bbl Brent. As of 4 March, Brent stood at $82.5/bbl, up about 14% week on week. In a bid for protection, European carriers have increased their focus on fuel hedging in recent years after being burned earlier in the decade. But exposure remains uneven. Wizz Air was 83% hedged through end‑March, it said when reporting financial results on 26 January, but coverage drops to 55% for the following 12 months. Even if that ratio has since improved, relatively small fuel price moves could still hit its bottom line, just as it emerges from GTF‑related groundings. It also has high exposure to the Middle East, with operations in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, plus a large presence in Israel. Turkish Airlines said in November that it was 50% hedged for the year to end‑March and only 23% for the following 12 months, leaving it heavily exposed. Other carriers are better-shielded. Ryanair said on 26 January it was 84% hedged until end‑March and 80% for fiscal 2027. EasyJet said on 29 January it was likewise 84% hedged until end‑March but just 62% for the following six months. IAG indicated on 27 February that its modelled assumption was to be hedged at the same level, 62%, for 2026, leaving it relatively exposed. However, it also disclosed that, at end‑December 2024, derivatives in place would have generated a €1.6 billion gain if fuel prices had risen 40% in 2025. If replicated this year, that would clearly provide a meaningful buffer. Air France‑KLM said on 19 February that it was 70% hedged through the first quarter and 69% through the second. Lufthansa Group, meanwhile, typically hedges a high proportion of its needs. Across the full year 2025, the German group was 90% hedged. The group is likely to provide an update on this with its annual results on 6 March. Even with hedges, fuel bills will rise and future hedging costs increase. Consumers will ultimately pay more. Some comfort may come from comparisons with US carriers, which typically do not hedge fuel at all, and many Asian airlines, which hedge less actively than European counterparts. "For US carriers, that means they bear more fallout but still feel the impact of higher prices," Luman notes. Fuel risks are exacerbated by the fragile state of kerosene supply. Energy information provider ICIS observes that the market was already tight before shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for global energy markets, was severely disrupted. "There is a real crunch on jet fuel supply," one trader told ICIS. Europe is particularly exposed, with more than half its jet fuel imports coming from the wider Arab Gulf. "European middle distillate is very reliant on Middle East exports, with upwards of 800,000 barrels per day flowing into Europe. While some of this will be from West Coast Saudi, the majority transits the Strait of Hormuz,” said Michael Connolly, head of refining at ICIS (which, like Cirium, is RELX-owned). "This will quickly draw down on European inventories if transit through the strait remains limited." ICIS warns of potential shortages, noting that jet fuel is more vulnerable than other refined products because specification differences limit substitution. If Middle East supplies dry up, Europe would need to source jet fuel from North America, "and that will be very expensive", one source told ICIS. Adding to the pressure, a flight to safety has pushed the dollar higher, erasing around a third of the euro's gains over the past year and delivering another hit to profits. The ultimate scale of the impact will depend on how long the disruption lasts. Conflict in the Middle East last year led to rapid schedule cuts, but most suspensions were short‑lived and carriers still delivered record results. This time could be different. The aims of the military action are unclear but could include regime change. US officials have not ruled out deploying ground troops. President Trump said on 2 March the bombing was set to last "four or five weeks" but could run "far longer than that", taking it well into April. Matthew Borie, chief intelligence officer at Osprey Flight Solutions, said during a 4 March briefing that at the start of the conflict Iran likely had around 50,000 Shahed drones, enough for it to maintain launches "extending out for three months". Iran has been able to "learn from their experience in Ukraine, literally with the same drones", he says. "Their ability to launch these types of attacks in a consistent frequency of hundreds a day has been shown already and there is no indication that the activity is going to dissipate." For airlines, that risks turning what might have been a short, sharp shock into a serious drag on their summer prospects.