European air traffic will this year reach only 51% of 2019's levels, with the pace of recovery accelerating from summer onwards, air traffic manager Eurocontrol has predicted. In a research paper released at the start of the year, Eurocontrol also estimates that traffic levels will be 50-60% down during the "first months" of 2021, and warns that a complete recovery is unlikely until 2026. This assumes a progressive vaccine deployment across Europe that fails to provide full coverage and eradicate Covid-19. Under such a scenario, traffic would in 2022 reach 72% of 2019's levels by mid-year. Even in Eurocontrol's most optimistic scenario, traffic does not regain 2019's levels until 2024. "Substantial failures will occur in 2021, highlighting the need for financial support to the entire industry," argues Eurocontrol. "In 2020, the vast majority of state support was allocated to airlines, typically legacy/scheduled carriers; State support is needed to support the wider aviation value chain, especially the airport community." Eurocontrol is also calling for greater clarity on slot exemptions, as well as progress on the Single European Sky. Looking back over 2020, it notes that the coronavirus crisis has cut 1.7 billion from European passenger numbers, leading to €56.2 billion ($69.1 billion) in net losses for airlines, airports and air navigation service providers. Intra-European traffic was down 54%, while traffic between Europe and the rest of the world fell 59%. "Major reductions in the number of flights were exacerbated by extremely low load factors," notes Eurocontrol. "Those flights that did take place in 2020 were typically at best half full." It cites data showing European airline load factors remaining constant at around 50%-60% since early summer, having recovered from a low point of around 27% in April.

China Airlines will phase out the last of its passenger Boeing 747-400s by early 2021, becoming the latest carrier in the region to retire the type, which it has operated for more than 30 years. The airline disclosed its move through an announcement for a 747 farewell event, to be held on 6 February, which will see a 747-400 (registered B-18215) perform a "flight to nowhere" towards Mt Fuji in Japan, before returning to Taipei. The carrier has four passenger 747-400s currently in storage. China Airlines also has 18 747-400Fs in operation, with a further two freighters in storage. China Airlines did not disclose an exact date for the retirement of its 747s. The announcement also marks the end of more than 45 years of 747 passenger operations for China Airlines. It took delivery of its 747, a -100, in 1975, which it operated until 1983. In 1977, the carrier added its first 747SP, operating up to four examples, before retiring the aircraft in 2000. China Airlines received its first and only 747-200B Combi in 1978, and took delivery of its first 747-200B a year later. It phased out the Combi aircraft in 1992, and retired the -200Bs by 2002. China Airlines' 747 fleet, 1975-2021. The carrier took delivery of its first 747-400 in 1990, going on to operate up to 15 examples in 2007. B-18215, which will operate the farewell flight, was the last-ever 747-400 to be produced by Boeing, in 2005. While the carrier's 747-400Fs are still in operation, they will be replaced in the longer term by a fleet of 777Fs. China Airlines is the latest airline to bid its 747 fleet farewell, amid the spectre of the coronavirus pandemic. In March 2020, Dutch carrier KLM announced the imminent retirement of the type, followed by Australia’s Qantas in June, and British Airways in July. Virgin Atlantic withdrew its final Boeing 747-400 in December.

Despite the sharp reduction in flying during 2020 because of travel restrictions related to the Covid-19 pandemic, fatal losses for the last 12 months were just as high as in some recent years. Globally there were 12 fatal airline accidents in 2020, resulting in the deaths of 332 passengers and crew. This compares with 22 fatal accidents and 297 fatalities in 2019 when commercial airline activity was at a normal level – which means four or five times the number of flights that took place in 2020. The previous safest year for flying was in 2015, when there were nine fatal accidents and 176 fatalities. Among the four jet fatal accidents, three were the result of poorly-planned and badly-executed approaches in serviceable aircraft in conditions that should not have been a problem for the crews. These involved a Pegasus Airlines Boeing 737-800 at Istanbul in February, a Pakistan International Airlines Airbus A320 at Karachi in May, and an Air India Express Boeing 737-800 at Kozhikode in August. There were 121 passengers and crew fatalities in these accidents. But there is another unusual factor that sets 2020 apart: accidental shootdowns – in the plural. The worst accident of 2020 involved the shootdown of a Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 on January. The aircraft was climbing out of Tehran on a scheduled service to Kiev, when it was misidentified as hostile by Iranian military, who fired two missiles at it, killing all 176 people on board. Another casualty of misidentification was an African Express Airways Embraer Brasilia operating a medical relief charter flight into Bardale, Somalia. It was shot down, ironically, by a peacekeeping unit. In both cases, effective communication between air traffic control and the military could have prevented the fatal mistakes. The politically unstable conditions in which both events took place are likely to continue, and not only in the Middle East and Africa. Since shootdowns, accidental or not, are killers, airlines need to approach the decision whether or not to continue operating to, or through, a conflict zone as if it were a traditional safety threat.