Airbus is predicting a shortage of new widebodies amid a faster-than-expected recovery in long-haul travel. Mark Pearman Wright – the European airframer's head of marketing, aircraft investors – said at the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers conference in Dublin on 17 January that China's sudden departure from its zero-Covid policy in late 2022 was poised to add pressure to the situation. "My personal view was probably a bit more cautious than the speed we are seeing today of China opening up. I think we are going to see a shortage of recovery of widebody aircraft... more dramatic than what we were seeing even a couple of months ago." He says that the long-haul market has recovered faster than was predicted during the early phases of pandemic. As new widebody supply by Airbus and Boeing is "fairly stable", Pearman Wright expects that airlines will mainly depend on reactivating stored aircraft to grow capacity. If long-haul flight activity reaches pre-pandemic levels in 2025, he estimates that airlines will require "at least" half of the widebodies stored amid the pandemic. "Much more" capacity will be required if the long-haul market has fully recovered by 2024, he adds. Widebodies' greater programme complexity makes it more difficult to increase their production than is the case with single-aisles, Pearman Wright notes. In 2022, Airbus laid out a plan to increase A350 production to six per month, from five, early this year. A330 output, meanwhile, stands at three per month. During a 10 January press briefing, chief commercial officer Christian Scherer expressed confidence in the sales prospects for long-haul aircraft and asserted that "the global sentiment on widebodies is rather positive". He added: "I feel pretty good about the widebody." Airbus is likely to give an update on its production outlook when it discloses financial results for the full year 2022 on 16 February.

Lufthansa has made an offer to the Italian government to take a minority stake in ITA plus options to acquire the remainder of the company at a later date. The German group says it made an approach to the Italian ministry of economy and finance today, seeking a memorandum of understanding that would lead to exclusive negotiations. "The plan is to agree on the initial acquisition of a minority stake as well as on options to purchase the remaining shares at a later date," says Lufthansa. Talks would focus on the possibility of an equity investment in ITA, as well as the commercial and operational integration of the Italian airline into Lufthansa Group. Implementation of this would be subject to regulatory approval, notes Lufthansa. "For Lufthansa Group, Italy is the most important market outside of its home markets and the US," says the group. "Italy's importance for both business and private travel lies in its strong export-oriented economy and status as one of Europe's top vacation spots." In September 2022, a report by online news service Affari Italiani indicated that the new Italian government led by prime minister Giorgia Meloni would move forward with the sale process for ITA, after previously expressing doubt about the transaction. US-based investment fund Certares had been selected by the previous Italian government as the sole bidder for a majority stake in the company. Exclusive negotiations with the fund later ended without agreement. ITA was launched as a successor to former flag carrier Alitalia in October 2021, taking on much of its fleet, staff, branding and other assets.

The week of 9 January was the strongest sales period for Ryanair Group in the company's history, as bookings for Easter and the summer surged early in the new year, chief executive Michael O'Leary has indicated. Over 2 million bookings were made over the weekend, up from a previous 2019-era record of 1.6 million sales. In total, the airline tallied 4.95 million ticket sales during the whole week, up from a previous record of 4.12 million. Each day from Monday through Thursday set a new daily record. "There seems to be very high demand," O'Leary observed during a press event in London on 17 January, adding that bookings were coming in despite robust pricing and a lack of promotional offers by the airline, in contrast with previous bumper periods. "Yes, there's lot of cheap seats out there, but [strong bookings] are not on the back of a seat sale… There just seems to be very strong demand." O'Leary believes there is the potential for this week's sales number to surpass 5 million for the first time ever. He attributes the trend to customers booking early in the expectation that prices will rise, with other indicators, such as hotel and accommodation sales, showing a corresponding surge in interest. It also demonstrates that consumers are shrugging off the risk of recession and the cost-of-living crisis. Ryanair is seeing "no sign" of wider economic problems filtering through. An ongoing problem facing the carrier currently is a lack of capacity, constrained by a shortage of aircraft given production delays at Boeing. Ryanair was supposed to receive 21 Boeing 737 Max jets from September through December, but only got 12. It was then due to receive a further 39 from January to end-April, and expects to receive 30-35 by end-May, after which date it refuses to take deliveries because it is busy with operations. "To be fair to Boeing. the production does seem to have ramped up," says O'Leary. These expected deliveries would still put the airline "well on track" to achieve its goal of reaching 225 million passengers by fully year 2026. O'Leary sees the current European airline market as marked by a lack of overall capacity, with many carriers, especially legacy airlines, having pulled aircraft from the market amid the pandemic that have not been, and may not for some time be, replaced. "There is still a remarkably restrained capacity particularly across short-haul Europe," he says, arguing that the only airline that has placed meaningful extra capacity into the sector is Ryanair, which is offering 110% of its pre-Covid capacity in the quarter to end-March. Yet O'Leary is careful to caution that bumper sales and restricted capacity may not translate into stellar profitability for the carrier, with high oil prices impacting its bottom line. He explains that the challenge facing the carrier, which is roughly 50% hedged for full year 2024, is that a rise in oil prices could increase its cost base on its unhedged requirements, while a decline could enable those relatively unhedged airlines to undercut it on pricing. Given this uncertainty, O'Leary comments only that there is a "realistic prospect of very strong passenger volumes and rising airfares" through 2023, unless the carrier is extremely lucky. "If we have a year of strong demand, slightly higher fares, if oil prices stay stable or fall, and we have no adverse impacts in Covid or Ukraine," he says, "we'll make a bundle of money this year."