Analysts warn Taiwan crisis could have 'severe' impact on lessors
October 18, 2022
Any Chinese invasion of Taiwan, resulting in sanctions and aircraft impoundments, would likely have a "severe financial impact" on aircraft lessors given the number of aircraft they have on lease to Chinese airlines, analysts at DBRS Morningstar have warned. While not the ratings agency's "baseline scenario", an outright invasion of Taiwan would likely result in "meaningful" economic sanctions and counter-sanctions between China and the West, not to mention the potential for significant military action, DBRS Morningstar writes in a 12 October research note. It adds that any prohibitions on the sale or lease of Western-manufactured aircraft and aviation parts to China along similar lines to those imposed on Russia would have a "material negative" impact on all participants in the aviation industry globally, including OEMs, the supply chain in its entirety, and aircraft lessors. Any nationalisation of aircraft by China, meanwhile, would have a "meaningfully negative hit" on aircraft lessors, which may be forced to take large writedowns and lose a sizable portion of revenues and cash flows. In addition, it would further disrupt capital markets as investor demand for aircraft asset-backed securities has already been reduced by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, note DBRS Morningstar's David Laterza, senior vice-president of global FIG, and David Petu, vice-president of US structured credit. They see the involvement of Chinese lessors in the domestic commercial aviation industry as creating a "natural limit" to exposure to China by foreign lessors. Yet, given the sheer size of the market, China still represents one of the largest country exposures for several major global aircraft lessors. DBRS Morningstar, Cirium data, estimates that there are 740 leased aircraft not domiciled in China that could be seized. The lessor with the highest exposure is AerCap, with 243 aircraft on lease to Chinese airlines as of end of September 2022. BOC Aviation has the second-largest exposure (76 aircraft) and Air Lease Corporation the third (66). Some 20% of China's fleet is leased from overseas lessors, adds DBRS Morningstar. "Importantly for AerCap, nearly 55% of these aircraft were comprised of the most popular and highly sought-after newest-technology Airbus A320neo and A350 family and Boeing 737 Max and 787 family aircraft, a significantly higher new-tech aircraft composition relative to the fleet on lease to Russia," the researchers note. DBRS Morningstar reiterates that large-scale aircraft fleet nationalisation by China is a "remote" possibility. Global aircraft lessors and the aviation industry have not yet fully realised the financial implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing nationalisation of the aircraft leased by Russian airlines from foreign aircraft lessors, but DBRS Morningstar expects that lessors would have already adjusted risk management to account for Russia's actions. As of September 2022, Chinese airlines operated around 2,100 Airbus and 1,630 Boeing aircraft, or 18% and 15% of the total Airbus and Boeing commercial fleet, DBRS Morningstar states, again citing data. In addition, Chinese airlines accounted for approximately 9% of the combined backlog for both OEMs (1,141 aircraft on order or with signed LOIs, of which 42 aircraft are on order through lessors). DBRS Morningstar believes that, while already large, the true size of aircraft orders from Chinese airlines is understated as not all aircraft lessors report orders received from airlines.
LATAM set to exit Chapter 11 in early November
October 17, 2022
LATAM Airlines Group has reported the results of the pre-emptive rights period for shareholders, which it deems a "key step" towards exiting Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The Chile-based group projects that its reorganisation plan will become effective during the first week in November. It expects to exit the Chapter 11 proceeding with $2.2 billion of liquidity and a debt reduction of approximately 35% compared to the debt it had pending before filing for bankruptcy protection in the USA. "This has been another positive week for LATAM," LATAM's chief executive Roberto Alvo states. "The exit financing was secured, the pre-emptive rights period for shareholders ended and we are close to exiting the Chapter 11 process. We have met the deadlines and objectives we set for ourselves and we are confident that we will emerge stronger from this challenging period." The pre-emptive rights period (POP) ended on 12 October. LATAM has also reported the results for shareholders of the "second round", an option available to shareholders or assignees who subscribed shares in the POP and who expressed their intention to participate in that alternative, which was only available on 13 October. LATAM and its affiliates in Chile, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador on 11 May 2020 filed for Chapter 11 amid a near-shutdown of global aviation in the early months of the pandemic. The group shuttered its Argentinian affiliate on 17 June, and on 9 July 2020 included its Brazilian affiliate in the Chapter 11 filing. In July 2022, LATAM's shareholders gave the green light to a new capital structure outlined in the carrier's reorganisation and financing plan, which on 18 June was approved by the US bankruptcy court for the Southern District of New York. The US Department of Transportation in September gave final approval to LATAM's joint venture with US major Delta Air Lines.
Avolon A320neo repainted in Jet Airways livery
October 17, 2022
Irish lessor Avolon has had an Airbus A320neo repainted in the livery of India's Jet Airways. Maas Aviation – an aircraft painting and exterior coatings specialist says: "I can confirm that we did paint a Jet Airways livery for Avolon in September." The company declined to comment further, "in respect of client confidentiality". A photograph dated 27 September and posted to the Planespotters.net website shows the aircraft (MSN 10546), bearing the Jet livery, at Maastricht Aachen airport in the Netherlands. Data indicates that MSN 10546 is managed by Avolon and had been bound for Russia's S7 Airlines until the lease was terminated in mid-February before the aircraft could be delivered. Indian newspaper The Hindu Business Line reported on 28 September that Jet had entered into a lease agreement with Avolon to lease A320 aircraft. However, Jet said in a 6 October stock-exchange filing in response to that article that it had "not finalised or approved or entered into any arrangement related to aircraft". Avolon tells Cirium it "does not comment on specific customer relationships". Jet halted operations in April 2019 and was subsequently approved to enter a corporate insolvency resolution process. It has been working towards relaunching operations under a consortium between UAE-based businessman Murari Lal Jalan and UK-based Kalrock Capital.