ARC NEWS
Ryanair unlikely to increase fuel hedge over 50% for 2024: chief
August 31, 2022
Ryanair will not seek to hedge more than 50% of its fuel needs in 2024 on the likelihood that setbacks for the Russians in their invasion of Ukraine and a looming global recession will push down future oil prices, its group chief executive Michael O' Leary has disclosed. Speaking during a media event in London on 30 August, O'Leary suggests that the oil price could "collapse" in the coming months if there are indications of a resolution in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while possible recessions in China, Europe and the US could dampen demand for oil. Alternatively, negative news relating to the Ukraine conflict could still lead to fuel prices rising again during this winter, he adds. The Irish carrier is currently hedged at 90% up to March 2023 at $64 per barrel and approximately 40% hedged to March 2024 at between $92 - $93 per barrel, O'Leary states. He says he "wouldn’t want to go much more than this". "I think we will probably try to hedge up to about 50% of FY 24 at $90 to $92 dollars a barrel. I don’t think we want to hedge anymore because I think there is an equal chance into the summer of 2023 that oil prices might fall," he says. While Ryanair was very minded to hedge up to 90% "coming out of Covid", he wouldn't be keen to replicate this position for 2024 because "the risk is you get it wrong on both sides, you might be too high". But O'Leary does describe fuel as a "significant challenge" for Ryanair, although the carrier is in a better position than its unhedged rivals, he adds.


​Lufthansa Cargo to induct second A321P2F in October
August 30, 2022
Lufthansa Cargo plans to induct into service its second Airbus A321P2F converted freighter in October to meet high demand from the ecommerce and same-day segments. The twin-engine aircraft, with registration D-AEUA, will be based at the Frankfurt hub and operated by Lufthansa's regional subsidiary CityLine under a wet lease agreement, the German carrier says. The narrowbody is currently undergoing conversion in Singapore and will feature designs identical to the first A321P2F which entered into service in March, it notes. With the addition of this medium-haul freighter, the airline will expand its European network to new destinations including Madrid, Birmingham and London. It currently serves Istanbul in Turkey; Tel Aviv in Israel; Malta; Tunis in Tunisia; Dublin in Ireland; Manchester in the UK; and Cairo in Egypt. Lufthansa Cargo's chief commercial officer Ashwin Bhat states: "Complementing our B777F and belly capacity, we can now offer even shorter transport times within European and to selected medium-haul destinations. To the UK and Ireland, for example, we will offer daily weekday flights to Birmingham and Dublin, enabling our customers to build reliable, scalable and fast supply-chains." The carrier expects to introduce two additional A321 freighters in the first half of 2023.


​Aeroflot mulls 323-aircraft order as 'import substitution'
August 30, 2022
The chief executive of Russian flag carrier Aeroflot has suggested the company may order 323 domestically manufactured aircraft as "import substitution" products. "Overall, we are planning to contract 323 domestic aircraft, including 73 Sukhoi Superjets, and 210 MS-21s – these planes have a new image, they are equipped with Russian engines and are an import substitution product, and also 40 Tu-214s," Sergei Alexandrovsky said during a "working meeting" with Russian president Vladimir Putin, according to a transcript of the meeting published to the Russian president's official website kremlin.ru on 26 August. Alexandrovsky added: "These are big numbers which will require additional resources from us. We will need an additional 3,500 pilots for this programme and eight full-flight simulators. I would say this is a serious impetus for the development of our company both in the mid-term and the long term." Putin commented that there "has not been an order like this for a long time", to which Alexandrovsky replied: "Without a doubt. We have not had orders like this." The Russian president added: "We also need to develop servicing and acquire parts and components. Everything needs to be in place." Among the wide-ranging sanctions imposed on Russia by the West in relation to its invasion of Ukraine were sanctions requiring the termination of all operating leases to parties in Russia. Lessors were able to recover a small number of aircraft but most are trapped in the country. Russia-related write-offs of aircraft assets have started to affect lessors' financial results. Hong Kong-based lessor CALC's loss attributable to shareholders reached HK$130 million ($16.6 million) in the six months ended 30 June, after writing off in full two aircraft trapped in Russia. Singapore-based BOC Aviation made a pre-tax loss of $347 million in the first half of 2022 compared with a profit of $288 million in the same period of 2021, impacted by Russia's war in Ukraine. While Russia is operating those aircraft it has refused to return, problems will arise when it comes to maintaining and sourcing spare parts for the aircraft. Russian airlines, including Aeroflot, have already started stripping aircraft to secure spare parts they can no longer purchase overseas due to sanctions, according to an 8 August Reuters article which cited anonymous sources. During Putin's recent meeting with Aeroflot's chief executive Alexandrovsky, Putin acknowledged that Aeroflot has "many problems". "We are working on them – I will not list them now because you are well aware of them, better than anyone else," Putin said. Putin added that – "as far as I know" – the state has allocated Rb50 billion ($819 million) to support all Russian air carriers, including Aeroflot, to subsidise passenger services and cover operating expenses. Alexandrovsky said Aeroflot received Rb10.3 billion in April and May. The airline now flies to 111 destinations, 18 more than in 2021, Alexandrovsky said. It has also "significantly increased" the number of flights on certain routes, such as Moscow-St Petersburg, from 31 to 45 a day. Flights to Sochi have been increased from 15 to 25 a day, and flights to Mineralnye Vody from two to eight. "Overall, my assessment is that the situation is quite positive and stable, especially for 2022," Alexandrovsky said. “We continue flying thanks to state support measures and, above all, of course, thanks to your support, Mr President, and that of the government.”


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