Europe is set to fall behind the long-term trend growth in passenger numbers over the next 20 years, as capacity constraints hit the continent particularly hard, IATA director general Willie Walsh has warned. Speaking at the Aviation Festival being held in Amsterdam, Walsh said IATA was forecasting global passenger growth at 3.4% per annum over the next two decades, supported by significant expansion in Asia. This is below the roughly 4% growth rates seen in recent years but represents a "healthy" rate, he adds. However, "Europe will not be like that because the capacity won't be there". Although he did not suggest an alternative figure for European growth, Walsh opined that a lack of support from governments for infrastructure investment would be the key factor holding back passenger numbers. He cites the example of London Heathrow's third runway, a project that has been under discussion for decades. "They'll never build it," he says. Likewise, the attitude to sustainability is likely to clip the industry's wings, despite the huge strides that airlines and the wider sector are making to reduce their emissions, Walsh argues. Although he is bullish on the global demand picture over the coming decades, he remains cautious on China, noting that international carriers may be averse to placing too much capacity into the country given the harsh zero-Covid policies that have been in place over the past two years. This will not impact forecast significant growth in Chinese domestic traffic, however. In the shorter term, Walsh is "very optimistic" about the state of the airline industry, given the challenges that it has overcome since early 2020. Although there are still capacity bottlenecks, "a lot of airports are functioning reasonably well". Likewise, despite a darkening economic picture, consumer confidence "remains very strong", he adds. Walsh believes the constraints that have emerged through the recovery can largely be attributed to a misunderstanding over how difficult it would be to bring staff back into the sector, something he attributes to employees now expecting to work from home – a challenge for airports and airlines.

Mesa Air Group has entered into an agreement for the sale of 18 Bombardier CRJ700 aircraft owned by Mesa to US carrier United Airlines. The net proceeds from the sale of such aircraft will be approximately $50 million, the airline company disclosed. Under the terms of the agreement, Mesa Air says it is providing customary representations and warranties for a transaction of this type including authorisation, no conflicts, validity of agreement, regulatory matters, good and marketable title, airworthiness, no liens, aircraft records, manufacturer warranties, and no brokers' fees. In addition, United Airlines has agreed to deposit a specified sum per aircraft with the Federal Aviation Administration counsel to be applied toward the purchase of each aircraft. The closing of the sale of each aircraft is subject to certain customary closing conditions, including the execution of mutually acceptable sale and lease assignment and assumption documentation, and United's satisfactory inspection of the aircraft. The purchase agreement provides for a downward adjustment in the purchase price based on a formula set forth therein if the closing date in respect of an aircraft occurs after 31 January 2023, it adds.

IATA is prepared to suspend the membership of Russian carriers where they no longer hold the required operational safety certification, but is stopping short of automatically removing them entirely from the association, director general Willie Walsh has indicated. "We have not kicked the Russian carriers out of the association," Walsh said during a webcasted Eurocontrol conference on 4 October, but he clarified that any carrier that no longer held IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) certification would have their membership suspended, as that is "what we do". "So, where somebody no longer holds the IOSA registration they are suspended from membership. If it is clear that they are not going to even try to get recertification, well then typically they are excluded from membership of the association," he says, but he stresses that suspension "does not necessarily mean they are kicked out of the association". The IATA website shows that Aeroflot, UTair, Smartavia, AirBridgeCargo, Ural Airlines, RusLine, Nordwind, Rossiya, S7, Pegas Fly and NordStar are members. Walsh also alluded to the removal of Aeroflot chief executive Mikhail Poluboyarinov from IATA's board after the Russian national carrier was sanctioned by the USA, EU and UK. The IATA director general says Russian airspace represents a "critical path" for Europe-Asia traffic, but notes that passenger numbers on these routes are still at only around 40% of 2019 levels, primarily because China is still closed as a result of Covid-related restrictions. "So it's not having a big impact on the industry today. For some airlines, it's having a huge impact: Finnair, for example, who have had to restructure their network completely," he says. Walsh disclosed that IATA has been speaking to a number of "very large" low-cost carriers about potential membership of the association. He notes that while some low-cost carriers have joined, large players such as Ryanair, EasyJet or Wizz Air are not members. "The bottom line is: there's not a lot we can offer them. Their business model doesn't really fit with the services that we offer. I think that they benefit from the advocacy work that we do – they may or may not recognise that. But that doesn't mean that IATA isn't relevant. I think it is, and will continue to be, and if they want to join us, great," he says. Walsh would not identify the airlines to which IATA had been speaking.