ARC NEWS
​IATA slashes 2021 traffic estimates
February 25, 2021
Global passenger demand is deteriorating through the first half of 2021, IATA has warned while significantly downgrading its traffic estimates for the year. The airline association now expects traffic as measured by revenue passenger-kilometres to reach just 33-38% of 2019's levels in 2021, down from an estimate of 51% in December. It cites data showing a decline in domestic ticket sales since the end of 2020 while international bookings remain just a fraction of pre-pandemic levels. Speaking during IATA's regular press briefing, chief economist Brian Pearce said the estimates raised questions over airlines' "survivability" as they were unlikely to be profitable until 2022: "We are concerned now it's going to take much longer for the industry to stop burning through cash." Whereas previously IATA expected airlines to be generating profits by the final quarter of 2021, it now believes they could burn through $95 billion this year. The excess debt taken on by airlines will result in a "challenging environment", hindering their ability to invest in fleets and meet other spending commitments, adds Pearce. IATA attributes the deterioration in trading conditions to more stringent travel restrictions owing to the spread of new variants of Covid-19. The change in estimates represents a rapid adjustment of IATA's expectations. On a 3 February press call, it floated the prospect of RPKs declining to 38% of 2019's levels in 2021, but cautioned this was not a scenario but "an introduction of what may happen". Three weeks later it has not only made a recovery to 38% its "optimistic scenario", but introduced a further, lower potential pathway of a return to 33% of pre-pandemic levels. "With governments having tightening border restrictions, 2021 is shaping up to be a much tougher year than previously expected," says IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac. "Our best-case scenario sees airlines burning through $75 billion in cash this year. And it could be as bad as $95 billion. More emergency relief from governments will be needed." He adds: "A functioning airline industry can eventually energise the economic recovery from Covid-19. But that won't happen if there are massive failures before the crisis ends. If governments are unable to open their borders, we will need them to open their wallets with financial relief to keep airlines viable."


​EASA looking at environmental labelling for airlines
February 24, 2021
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency is looking to introduce an environmental labelling scheme that could require airlines to publish greater information on the carbon imprint of their operations. "We can confirm that EASA has the intention of introducing an environmental label for aviation". "It is not, however, foreseen that airlines will be obliged to display carbon emission data, or any other information from such a label, on tickets or during the booking process." Still, the agency is hopeful that information will be "distributed in a way that really benefits the consumer in making more sustainable air travel choices". German newspaper Welt am Sonntag had reported that EASA was seeking tenders for a classification system to rank flights and aircraft by their carbon footprint. The label concept is "still at the very early stages of development". Discussions are ongoing with stakeholders, including airlines."The main driver behind this initiative is to provide clear and credible information with regards to the environmental impact of aviation which is currently missing, often leading to confusion and mistrust," adds the agency.



New Zealand bans PW4000-powered 777s from airspace
February 24, 2021
New Zealand's Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has temporarily banned Pratt & Whitney PW4000-powered Boeing 777 aircraft from operating in its airspace. “We are issuing a NOTAM today which effectively prevents this aircraft type from landing or taking off within New Zealand domestic airspace or transiting through it," CAA’s deputy chief executive aviation safety, Dean Winter says in a statement today. CAA says this follows the recent engine failure of a United Airlines aircraft with the same profile, on 20 January. The incident occurred during flight 328 from Denver to Honolulu. The aircraft made a successful emergency landing and there were no injuries. Data shows that the aircraft, bearing registration N772UA (MSN 26930), is a 1995-built, 777-200 fitted with PW4077 engines. CAA's Winter states: “We are taking this action out of an abundance of caution to prevent any potential threat to people or property should another engine experience a similar fan blade failure like the incident in Denver." He adds: “We have quickly joined the aviation regulators in the United Kingdom and Japan in taking this action. We also note Boeing has recommended the suspension of all 777 with the affected engines until the cause of this failure is known. We anticipate that an emergency airworthiness directive will be issued by the USA’s Federal Aviation Administration to further clarify and take action on this situation.” He further states: “We are quite satisfied that there is enough evidence to take this action in the interest of keeping New Zealand’s skies safe and secure.” CAA says there are no PW4000-powered 777 aircraft operated by New Zealand-based airlines. Data shows that United Airlines is the largest operator of PW4000-powered 777s, and its in-service and stored fleet of 52 777-200s average 22.5 years old. ANA is the next largest operator, with 15 777-200s and seven -300s in its existing fleet. Korean Air operates 16 777s and its low-cost affiliate Jin Air operates another four; Japan Airlines has 13 in its fleet. These operators also have a mix of -200s and -300s.


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